The Championship has had its first managerial casualty of the season, as Paul Heckingbottom was fired as Preston North End manager after a 1-0 home loss to Lincoln City.
And, with the international break quickly approaching, the Lilywhites may not be the only team looking for a new manager.
There are more appropriate moments to fire a manager. One of those times is during international break windows, when there is more time on the training ground to introduce a new style and fresh ideas.
This particular window lasts two gameweeks, therefore with teams not playing for three weeks following this weekend’s games, may other clubs take advantage?
In light of this, following Paul Heckingbottom’s resignation, FLW has examined the six Championship managers and head coaches whose jobs are most at risk.
6Chris Davies – Birmingham City
First and foremost, I’ll say that I’m 99% certain Chris Davies will still be in his position come October. Finally, this is a list of the six managers whose jobs are most at risk, while the other 18 are more secure than his.
Which, to some, seemed irrational. Birmingham City have had a very difficult start on paper, facing Southampton and Wolves at home and going to Sheffield United, Wrexham, and Norwich City. It doesn’t get any simpler with Middlesbrough visiting St Andrews on Saturday.
So coming out of their first seven games with only one defeat, placing ninth in the overall table and fifth in the xG table, is really impressive. They’ve also won two of their four away games this season, which is something they struggled with last year, winning only five.
The Blues manager’s ability to be realistic when necessary has proven effective. Having said that, given Birmingham’s lofty ambitions, some in the football world will believe they can do better.
Serious issues were raised following their 6-1 EFL Cup defeat to Brentford, and while results have improved in the five games since, those questions may resurface if they continue.
5Phil Parkinson – Wrexham
Phil Parkinson, like Chris Davies, has always been held to a higher standard at Wrexham since the team joined the Championship. If anything, the Red Dragons’ boss has felt the weight even more.
Parkinson began last season as a manager with a PPG in the Championship of less than 1.00, suffering with Hull City, Charlton Athletic, and Bolton Wanderers, with the latter two being relegated.
Despite a difficult start, in which Wrexham won only two of their first 10 games, he was able to turn things around and lead the club to its greatest EFL finish in history.
However, given the amount of money spent by Wrexham and the club’s ambition under Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac, another poor start this season does not live up to those expectations.
With a 6-0 loss to West Ham United last Friday and a game against Southampton (who thrashed them 5-1 last season and appear to be making progress), Wrexham might enter the international break on the heels of consecutive big defeats and only one win in eight.
The only thing holding him down the list is that both Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac stated in February that Parkinson’s job is “for life.” We’ll see how much that integrity is tested over the season.
4Brian Barry-Murphy – Cardiff City
Many Cardiff City fans were expecting for a better start to life back in the Championship, but the Bluebirds are one of only two teams without a win after seven league games.
Some Cardiff fans are pointing the spotlight at Brian Barry-Murphy for his team selections and the manner the club handled the transfer window. Those appear to be vociferous parts of the crowd, but it’s a far cry from the optimism of League One last season.
That being said, there aren’t many EFL fans who believe their performances have deserved no wins and only four points this season. According to Fotmob, the Bluebirds are now third in predicted goal creation and have the most shots on target per match. Opta’s predicted table places them 10th.
Championship clubs having the highest xG this season
Pos
Club
xG
Goals scored.
1. West Ham United.
16.1
20
2. Norwich City: 13.5 13.
3. Cardiff City: 12.7 7 4.
Southampton: 12.5; 18; 5.
Middlesbrough
12.1 12
6. Millwall
12.0 11
Ultimately, Barry-Murphy is unable to convert chances on his own and has been let down by some poor forward play thus far. However, may his squad selection be contributing to this?
That’s what some may believe, and while Cardiff would be prudent not to fire the head coach, the upper management at Cardiff City Stadium isn’t known for patience, even after a winless start.
3Alessio Dionisi – Watford
It’s a running joke that Watford is the team that fires managers under Pozzo ownership, but it appears that Alessio Dionisi’s days are numbered.
Quite a few fans feel sad for Dionisi. Clearly, the squad has not been prepared for the extremely difficult schedule to begin the new season, as evidenced by the fact that he had no midfielders on the bench in their most recent defeat to Stoke City.
However, according to the underlying stats, Watford has been the poorest team in the division in the early stages of the season, and their solitary win since the opening day (a game in which Southampton lost a huge chance to even things up at the end) came against Preston, which is pretty concerning.
A poor performance against Bristol City at the weekend might bring another dugout reign at Vicarage Road to an end absurdly early.
2Nicky Hayen – Burnley
There’s a case to be made that whoever loses the match at Turf Moor between Burnley and Derby County this weekend could be out of work during the international break.
While it may spoil number one, Clarets manager Nicky Hayen needs a good result at home this weekend. Not only did he obtain his first league win and his first win at his new club after 90 minutes, but he also wanted to spend more time in the dugout.
Burnley is still suffering from the effects of relegation. They are currently leading the Championship after seven games, despite conceding the most goals. The 16 they’ve already sent equals their total from the whole 2024/25 campaign, the last time they were at this level.
The Clarets have not won a league match since February. They have not won a league game at home since beating Leeds United in October! They have three games to keep that statistic from crossing a year, with this weekend’s game being likely the simplest.
If Burnley remains at the bottom of the table after the international break, the club’s management may seek a speedy cure. However, there may still be some patience after a turbulent summer marked by a lack of preparation and the departure of important players.
1John Eustace – Derby County
Hayen is currently second only to Derby’s John Eustace in the Championship sack race, thanks to his patience.
The Rams have had a terrible start to the season after having so much momentum at the end of last season. While injuries, staff changes, and the withdrawal of Saudi-led investment at the last minute have not made for a pleasant summer, expectations will still be greater than this.
Derby is 22nd after seven games, having only won once. Only Preston have suffered more defeats than John Eustace’s side, and the manner in which the Rams have lost games has been worrying.
From failing to register shots on target against Swansea City and West Ham despite being a goal down inside six minutes, to being quite harmless against a West Brom side who played the better part of an hour with ten men, to losing despite being ahead against Charlton and then on Saturday against Birmingham, it has not been good.
According to the underlying figures, they are in the bottom three, and if they can’t put on a solid display against the league’s bottom club on Saturday, John Eustace may be out of time to turn around another bad start.
xz
