The Championship’s opening weekend concluded on Monday, with Cardiff City’s late equaliser against Wrexham capping off a tremendously intriguing first batch of games.
The three relegated teams all drew their first games, but two of them were against each other; Southampton was defeated in league action for the first time since mid-January, while Middlesbrough was pushed all the way to the finish by Lincoln City in their first second-tier outing since 1961.
Granted, no one should get ahead of themselves after just one game, but if the opening weekend is any indication, this season is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic, interesting, and surprising Championship campaigns in recent memory.
But is Opta getting too carried away? And does its supercomputer believe that the teams with the fastest starts will be there by May 1st? Here’s the updated predicted table.
24Stoke City
Before a ball was thrown, Opta listed Stoke City as the most likely to be relegated from the Championship this season, and a 2-1 home defeat to Swansea City on the first day hasn’t changed that.
Mark Robins’ side has now won seven of 33 league games since November 8, with 12 defeats in their previous 21.
That hangover from the conclusion of last season will need to be overcome fast in order to lift them off the bottom of the anticipated table anytime soon.
23Preston North End
There were considerable concerns regarding Preston North End entering the new season, primarily due to a lack of activity in the transfer window.
Going 2-0 down inside 25 minutes against a freshly promoted side in Bolton Wanderers, who have also had a difficult summer and are expected to slug it out for bottom spot with Preston, does not speak well for North End’s survival hopes.
Last year, Paul Heckingbottom’s side began strongly before falling apart in the second half of the season, similar to Stoke. Their roster has not necessarily improved since that time, and a busy few weeks in the transfer market will be required to improve the general outlook for the coming year.
22Bristol City
Bristol City performed poorly on the first day, losing 2-0 at home to Millwall.
However, this can be mitigated by the fact that they were reduced to ten men after Adam Randell received two yellow cards in 13 first-half minutes, and they were playing last season’s third-placed team with the best away record in the division.
Michael Skubala still has a lot of work to do to prove that this Robins team has the potential to finish in the top half, according to Opta, after finishing in the bottom three following the first round of games.
21Cardiff City
Cardiff trailed Wrexham after 95 minutes on Monday night before salvaging a draw with a Rubin Colwill free kick.
There was a lot of possession, as one would anticipate from a Brian Barry-Murphy team, but little attacking danger in open play, with the Bluebirds scoring 0.39 open play predicted goals against one of the poorest remaining Championship defences from last season.
It’s not the end of the world, and as a freshly promoted team, 21st place would be more than adequate for Cardiff this season, but Opta haven’t drawn much encouragement from that opening day draw.
20Charlton Athletic
Charlton Athletic continued their winning streak this season, coming from behind to defeat Derby County in the Valley.
There was much greater offensive intent as Nathan Jones switched to a back four, which helped the Addicks earn promotion from the League. Tyreece Campbell appeared to be back to his best in that scheme a few years ago, although for only one game.
Before the season began, Opta rated Charlton as second favourites for relegation, therefore finishing 20th after gameweek one demonstrates confidence in the Addicks’ chances this year.
19Bolton Wanderers
On the first day, Bolton surprised many by defeating Preston 2-1 at the Toughsheet Stadium, which was completely sold out.
Many players who were yet to make their Championship debuts put in a strong performance, and it can only be encouraging that this Trotters team was able to grind out a win on their return, despite being far from finished.
However, as previously stated, the Lilywhites will be looking warily over their shoulder, so Opta isn’t getting overly excited about an opening-day victory over them. Bolton fans still want to be in 19th place come May.
18Portsmouth
Portsmouth’s defensive collapse at the conclusion of the first half in both of their first two competitive games of the season is cause for concern.
Despite taking the lead against West Ham United and QPR, Pompey lost 3-1. The Hammers conceded in the 43rd, 45th, and 50th minutes. On Saturday, Julien Stephan’s team scored in the 33rd, 40th, and 45+2 minutes.
That being said, they’re starting games well, and if John Mousinho can resolve this issue, combined with a solid finale to the summer window, Pompey should be less in danger than they have been at points during their current Championship spell.
17Watford
It’s become somewhat of a cliché that few people know what to expect from Watford each season. A win over Southampton on opening day does little to change that.
Opta had the Hornets’ relegation probability at 25.3% before the season began, so to be up to the stratospheric heights of 17th following that win against the Saints suggests optimism, rather than a one-off performance under Alessio Dionisi.
What Sunday did indicate, however, was that, despite the off-field hoopla, Watford has quality on the pitch, which should be enough to prevent relegation this season.
16Lincoln City
Lincoln’s first Championship game did not require much of a change in strategy. Last season, they excelled out of possession and moved the ball fast, and it almost worked against top second-tier competition in Middlesbrough.
Arguably, if this game had taken place around the conclusion of last season, the Imps would have departed the Riverside with a 1-0 victory or at least a 1-1 tie.
So, a narrow defeat away at one of the title favourites does not diminish people’s confidence in Lincoln’s Championship chances. If anything, it increased their odds of survival.
15Backburn Rovers
Historically, it’s typically a good time to face a recently relegated team in the first few games of the season, but if Wolves weren’t at their best on Friday, that was owing in part to Blackburn Rovers’ outstanding away performance.
Tony Mowbray’s side made advantage of opportunities and limited Wolves when behind 2-1. In the end, only a disputed penalty decision prevented them from leaving Molineux with all three points.
There is quality in this Blackburn group, despite widespread dissatisfaction with the dearth of new signings. If they can stay fit and Mowbray can maintain his success at Ewood Park, Rovers might be far from relegation contention by the end of the season.
14QPR
Despite being first in the Championship on the opening weekend, Opta believes Julien Stephan’s team will struggle to sustain that level for the next 45 gameweeks, projecting them to finish 14th overall.
The victory at Fratton Park provided numerous opportunities for positive reflection. If Ilias Chair returns to form, he will add another dangerous attacking outlet to Rumarn Burrell, Richard Kone, Kwame Poku, and Harvey Vale.
Furthermore, for a team that conceded 16 more goals than their projected goals against suggested, conceding one from 2.17 expected goals against on opening day suggests that, in Pierce Charles, the Hoops may have found the goalkeeper they need to advance to the next level.
However, if they are to be outsiders for the top eight, they must improve their defensive performance.
13Derby County
Derby have struggled in their first two competitive games against Championship opponents who have given them time on the ball.
There’s no doubt that when John Eustace’s side plays against a team that wants to hold possession, they’ll be able to damage them, but their defensive performance, particularly on Saturday at Charlton, will be a problem.
With the turmoil surrounding their takeover now behind them, there will need to be a huge drive in the transfer window between now and September 1 to add more talent, as the Rams have fallen behind significantly at the top of the second division.
12Sheffield United
This projection certainly does not account for any probable -12 point deductions that Sheffield United may suffer as a result of the winding-up hearing on August 19.
Aside from that, there’s little to suggest the Blades are much more than a mid-table team right now.
They have decent players who can easily beat the teams around the bottom, but when it comes to potentially returning to the play-offs, Sheffield United lacks that x-factor, especially now that Gustavo Hamer has left the club.
That was highlighted in a fairly boring 0-0 draw with Birmingham City at Bramall Lane on the season’s first day, and Opta believes there will be more of the same for the remainder of the season.
11Wrexham
Wrexham perhaps had the best first 20 minutes of any team in the Championship’s opening weekend, and the only downside to their performance at Cardiff was that they were just a goal up before the Bluebirds got into the game.
Having said that, despite the outcome, it was a terrific performance out of possession in the second half, giving us more reason to be optimistic about the season.
This season’s play-offs will be tight, and Opta wants to see more from Phil Parkinson’s team before labelling them as a top-eight club.
10Norwich City
Norwich City were the seventh-highest promotion contenders entering the new season, but a loss at home to West Brom puts them out of the play-offs entirely, according to Opta’s projection.
That could be interpreted as relatively harsh. It’s worth remembering that the Baggies will be difficult to beat this season under James Morrison, and even so, Max O’Leary may not have a better season in goal for West Brom.
That’s not even accounting for the fact that the goal that broke the tie was clearly a handball.
This year, the Canaries are unlikely to waste as many chances in front of goal. Talisman Mo Toure is being linked with a transfer away, which would be a huge blow, but if he can stay at Carrow Road, Philippe Clement’s team should be able to finish in the top eight.
9Birmingham City
Birmingham just missed out on the top eight. According to Opta, Chris Davies’ team had the ninth-best promotion odds prior to last weekend, and that has remained unchanged since.
That’s partly because there wasn’t much going on on opening day at Sheffield United in their 0-0 draw, but playing away from home and allowing their opponents to only three shots all game reflects more on the Blues than the Blades.
It’s reasonable to say, however, that Birmingham will need to get into gear quickly, whether on the pitch or in the transfer market, if they want to stay as play-off outsiders in the anticipated table.
8Swansea City
Swansea put up a solid performance away from home on opening day, and while it came against the team Opta predicts will finish last, it was enough to propel Vitor Matos’ side into the play-offs.
The Swans were a top-10 team after Vitor Matos took control in November of last season, and as the summer progressed, and more importantly, Zan Vipotnik remained in South Wales, their chances of making the play-offs increased.
They have amazing attacking depth, almost as if they’ve been planning for Vipotnik’s exit, but no significant bid has arrived. That can only be a good thing, and Adam Idah’s performance off the bench shown that a high level can be maintained.
Aside from that, there are excellent midfield and defensive alternatives, enough to ruffle some feathers at the top of the table.
7West Bromwich Albion
I previously argued that there should be no overreaction to Norwich’s opening-day setback, but it is impossible to overstate how significant a win that was for West Brom.
Last year, the Canaries scored 30 points in 16 games at Carrow Road under Philippe Clement, following losing all seven home league games under Liam Manning, so it will be a difficult venue to win games this season.
While they occasionally relied on good goalkeeping, they also produced decent chances for themselves. Jimmy-Jay Morgan already seems like a star, and an early goal this season from Aune Heggebo will boost his confidence tremendously.
West Brom were excellent defensively under James Morrison last year, so don’t expect them to concede nearly three goals per game. Get that down, keep the attack blazing, and this seventh-place projection may rise even higher in a few months.
6Burnley
Burnley required 45 minutes to reach the Championship this season, but if that second half is representative of what we might see during the campaign under Nicky Hayen, the concern about how the Clarets will fare will be rapidly dispelled.
That being said, Nuno Espirito Santo’s tweaks allowed Burnley to have greater possession of the ball and attack West Ham. Furthermore, the big chances fell to Zian Flemming, and it would be surprising if he is still at Turf Moor in a fortnight.
However, with more additions expected by the deadline and more time to settle under a manager hired later than anyone else in the division, the Clarets should still be a play-off-caliber team, even if it isn’t as impressive as their previous seasons at the level.
5Wolves
Again, do not overreact to a recently relegated team’s first game back in the Championship under a new manager.
Wolves should be able to recover from their near-defeat against Blackburn on the opening day, and there is clear talent in this group, particularly moving forward.
Defensively, some issues must be dealt fast. Tony Mowbray’s side cut through the Old Gold on Friday, and the marking for the first goal, in particular, was far worse than required.
However, with more games under his belt, Cesar Peixoto should be able to orchestrate a promotion push at Molineux. Opta believes a top-two surge will fall short, however.
4Southampton
However, continuity should not be overlooked, and should teams like Wolves and Burnley catch up, Southampton, who are returning with essentially the same group as last season, may be too far ahead.
The Saints are already at a disadvantage this season having being fined four points for spying on both Oxford United and Ipswich Town last season.
They were also slow to start at Watford, and despite a stronger second half, they lost the game. It will be interesting to watch how much the off-field drama surrounding Spygate and the FA allegations against Tonda Eckert will effect things on the field.
Opta believes it will have less of an impact, and predicts them finishing fourth for the second consecutive season in May.
3Millwall
Millwall showed few signs that last season’s third-place finish and promotion push were a fluke, as they put on a merciless offensive display against Bristol City’s ten men, scoring a Championship-high 3.4 anticipated goals in the 2-0 victory.
Most anticipated goals created on matchday one in the Championship
Pos
Club
xG
1. Millwall
3.4
2. Norwich City
3.0
3) Middlesbrough
2.2
4. Portsmouth 2.2.
5. QPR
2.1
Players made strong league debuts, including Josh Coburn, who scored twice. If he can stay fit, the Lions will be a formidable club as the season progresses.
Opta is still erring on the side of play-offs rather than automatic promotion, but whether this is due to the fact that their win came against a team with ten men or just the relative strength of the division remains unknown.
However, their promotion chances were the sixth-highest entering the new season, thus being third after the first day implies a significant improvement in those odds.
2Middlesbrough
At halftime against Lincoln, Middlesbrough fans were staring at an identical script to the ones that tormented them so frequently in the latter months of last season. Despite having the majority of possession, they are behind 1-0.
The second half was more of the same, but where frustration in front of goal and wasted chances dominated headlines last year, Will Lankshear grabbed them on opening day, scoring twice to turn the game around and secure all three points.
If Borough can learn to grind out victories against inferior opponents that will sit back and let Kim Hellberg’s side have the ball, the Teesiders might be a formidable team this season.
There is still time for that to change, but so far, so good, with a spot in the top two of the anticipated standings.
1West Ham United
West Ham’s failure to maintain leads under Nuno was clearly not limited to the Premier League, as the Hammers squandered a two-goal lead away against Burnley on the opening day.
There’s no doubt that West Ham possesses a lot of attacking skill that can cause problems in both open play and set-pieces, but their defence is still a little weak.
Questions will remain about Nuno’s style of play and whether it suits a team that many believe to be forward-thinking and dangerous to watch in the future.
However, he still has credit from his time in the division with Wolves, and some of the players in this West Ham team is quite literally insane for the level, so after one game, even if they lost badly, the Hammers were always going to top this list.
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