Based on the difficulties of their remaining five games, the five Premier League teams vying for Champions League qualifying have been graded. Currently, Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, and Aston Villa are all vying for a spot at the top table in Europe for the upcoming season.
Due in part to England’s strong UEFA coefficient, which ensures that even fifth place earns a spot in Europe’s top competition next season, Liverpool and Arsenal are virtually certain to qualify, leaving just three golden tickets up for grabs. With 60 points, Nottingham Forest is now in third place, while Aston Villa is in seventh place and only three points behind, with the other teams vying for position.
The pressure is building as we approach the last stretch, and the margins are quite narrow. One of the most exciting finishes in recent memory is starting to take shape. On paper, however, who is having the easiest time, and who is facing an extremely difficult fixture list? After doing some maths, we ranked each squad according to the average league ranking of their remaining opponents, starting with the team with the easiest schedule.
Table of the Premier League (2024–25)
Place
Club
Games
Gains
Draws
Losses
Goal Distinction
Points
3.
Forest of Nottingham
33
18
6.
9.
+14
60
4.
Newcastle
33
17
5.
10.
+18
59
5.
Man City
33
17
7.
9.
+22
58
6.
Chelsea
33
16
9.
8.
+18
57
7.
Villa Aston
33
16
9.
8.
+16
57
5Nottingham Forest
Remaining opponents’ average league position: 13
This season, Nottingham Forest has unquestionably been the biggest surprise in the Premier League. Only a handful, if any, could have anticipated their meteoric ascent under Nuno Espírito Santo, particularly after barely escaping relegation in the 2023–2024 season.
The Tricky Trees will be optimistic about their chances of earning a Champions League berth this time around given their forthcoming home games against mid-table Brentford and already-relegated Leicester City. Their final-day matchup with Chelsea appears to be their biggest obstacle; it may be a huge one, but they will be hoping to have already guaranteed a spot in the top five by then.
The Final Premier League Games for Nottingham Forest
Date
The opposition
At Home or Away
May 1.
Brentford
House
May 5.
The Crystal Palace
Out of the way
May 11.
City of Leicester
House
May 18.
United West Ham
Out of the way
25 May
Chelsea
House
4Manchester City
Remaining opponents’ average league position: 11.8
Assignments like this one are typically handled by Manchester City to feel less like a schedule and more like divine choreography, as though it’s all a part of God’s design rather than hard work and perseverance. The defending champions, however, have not looked like angels this season, faltering through a campaign that has felt more unconventional than consistent with their typical trophy-hoarding routine.
Nevertheless, you can guarantee they’ll want to send Kevin De Bruyne off in style, as his farewell tour is now underway. A comparatively smooth runway should be provided by opponents with an average league position of 11.8. Their home game against Aston Villa is their most difficult test, but with Wolves and Southampton in the basement to come, it feels more like a grace period than a gauntlet. The final two games are Fulham and Bournemouth, both of which City will support to win.
Remaining Premier League Games for Manchester City
Date
The opposition
At Home or Away
22 April
Villa Aston
House
May 2.
Wanderers of Wolverhampton
House
May 10.
Southampton
Out of the way
May 18.
The Bournemouth
House
25 May
Fulham
Out of the way
3Aston Villa
Remaining opponents’ average league position: 10.4
Aston Villa is currently the hottest side in England after winning the Premier League five times in a row. Unai Emery’s team will soon discover how long they can continue to ride this purple patch, though, as travels to both Manchester clubs precede a challenging final stretch that also includes a matchup with Andoni Iraola’s gritty, Europe-chasing Bournemouth.
That’s all ifs, buts, and sliding doors, but you’d be bold to wager against the Villans making a significant push given how Ollie Watkins and Marcus Rashford have been playing lately. It’s already looking like it will be another memorable campaign, regardless of how the season concludes. Following initial scepticism regarding the Midlands team’s ability to manage the demands of both the Premier League and continental football, they have silenced their detractors and accomplished just that, adding an FA Cup semifinal for good measure.
The Remaining Premier League Games for Aston Villa
Date
The opposition
At Home or Away
22 April
City of Manchester
Out of the way
May 3.
Fulham
House
May 10.
The Bournemouth
Out of the way
May 18.
Tottenham
House
25 May
United Manchester
Out of the way
2Newcastle United
Remaining opponents’ average league position: 9.8
When Newcastle was taken over by its wealthy Saudi Arabian leadership in 2021, it’s possible that the Eddie Howe project took a little longer than initially anticipated. However, patience is usually a virtue, and any additional success this season is merely a welcome bonus after leading the Magpies to their first trophy in 70 years in the form of a League Cup.
Howe is fortunate to have faith in the bank since the Magpies need to win away games against runners-up Arsenal and a revitalised Brighton if they hope to qualify for the Champions League. However, a home game against Ipswich Town should offer some respite in a gruelling schedule that will see them take on opponents with an average league position of 9.8. This is a frightening prospect, especially since their next game is against 18th-place rivals at home, demonstrating the strength of their other opponents.
The Final Premier League Games for Newcastle United
Date
The opposition
At Home or Away
26 April
Town of Ipswich
House
May 4.
Albion, Brighton & Hove
Out of the way
May 11.
Chelsea
House
May 18.
The Arsenal
Out of the way
25 May
Everton
House
1Chelsea
Remaining opponents’ average league position: 7
It should have been a formality on paper since Chelsea, the team that has spent the most money in the nation over the last five years, entered the Champions League qualifying round as if it were their natural inheritance. Even if this may be Enzo Maresca’s first time leading Stamford Bridge, the bar is still very high. The justifications will quickly go stale if you do anything less than the absolute minimum.
But after a post-New Year’s run that has been more blip than bounce, here they are, gazing up the highest slope in the lot. The final stretch begins with a difficult home doubleheader against Everton and Liverpool. A fierce run follows, with Manchester United visiting the Bridge in between away games against top-five rivals Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. Maresca may find his seat a bit warmer than he would like if they are unable to come up with a winning formula quickly.
The Final Premier League Games for Newcastle United
Date
The opposition
At Home or Away
26 April
Everton
House
May 4.
Liverpool
Out of the way
May 11.
Newcastle United
Out of the way
May 16.
United Manchester
House
25 May
Forest of Nottingham
Out of the way
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