We’ve entered the second international break of the season, and we’re almost a third of the way through the Championship.
15 games is a decent starting point for taking the league standings more seriously. Teams at the top are there because they have maintained form over a long period of time, whilst teams fighting for relegation do not.
With a two-week break between fixtures, it’s also a good time to review predictions and update them with a little more than 30 games to go.
Football League World did this during the last international break, so let’s do it again. Let’s see how Opta’s Supercomputer predicts the Championship campaign will play out between now and May.
24Preston North End
Despite a much-needed victory over Southampton, of all teams, in the final game before the break, Opta does not believe Preston North End will make an escape under Graham Alexander between now and the end of the season.
Preston’s record of one win and two draws in the first 14 league games was the lowest in division history, and there was a case to be made that they had gotten worse since Paul Heckingbottom’s departure.
Maybe they might be inspired by the fact that the team they beat to this undesired 14-game record, Sheffield Wednesday in 2023/24, kept up with reasonably ease, but this appears to be a much more difficult division to make up ground in.
23Derby County
Similarly, a morale-boosting victory for John Eustace and Derby County over Bolton Wanderers last weekend is insufficient to persuade the supercomputer that the Rams will be rocket up the table anytime soon.
With this relying solely on underlying data, it’s no wonder that Derby remains near the bottom, with an xG difference of at least 2.0 poorer than everyone else in the Championship.
There will be some hope that, once certain key players return from the international break, John Eustace’s side may go on a run and avoid relegation. Opta does not believe this will happen, however.
22Watford
Watford have gained some breathing room between themselves and the relegation zone in the last week, beating Lincoln City in midweek and then drawing 0-0 with Middlesbrough, albeit a very fortunate result.
Both of those games were played at Vicarage Road, where Watford has performed well. Opta believes that their away form, as well as their overall underlying figures, have pushed them back into the relegation zone.
The attitude around the Hornets isn’t great, and it can be difficult to look past the overall dissatisfaction with the Pozzos when making an updated prediction like this.
21Charlton Athletic
For the second season in a row, Charlton Athletic has fought valiantly against relegation and survived by the slimmest of margins. In the end, the Addicks will gladly accept this outcome.
Nathan Jones’ side went on an 11-match winless streak before picking up another crucial win against Sheffield United to take some of the pressure off him heading into the break.
What was maybe more relieving was that they deserved the win against a team that was looking for a play-off spot with a win, indicating that Charlton is still a competitive club with plenty of fight and enough to barely keep over the dotted line.
20Burnley
It’s interesting to see Burnley out of the bottom three in this updated table. So far under Fabio Celestini, the Clarets have drawn 0-0 with Portsmouth, drawn a game they certainly should have lost against QPR, and then squandered a 4-1 lead against Cardiff City in approximately 30 minutes.
The fact that they continue to take leads in games is positive, but they have only won one of the ten games in which they have led, losing the other five. Turf Moor now has a very soft underbelly, which the incoming Swiss head coach must swiftly address.
Celestini has previous experience turning around a large club in difficulty, having done it at FC Basel. However, this appears to be a far more challenging job. At this point, getting them to 20th place will most likely be considered a success.
19Lincoln City
Lincoln’s robust start to life in the second division after more than 60 years has begun to fade in terms of results, with the international break coming at an ideal moment for an Imps side that has won just one and lost six of their previous eight games.
Tom Shaw and Chris Cohen’s team is only one point above the relegation zone, but the points difference between the current bottom three and the pursuing pack is already significant. Indeed, Lincoln is separated from 14th-placed Cardiff by fewer points than from 22nd.
Ultimately, survival is the Imps’ main goal this season, and they’ve looked competitive in nearly every game thus far. Even against West Ham United, the Hammers had to go down to nine men before they could exercise their might. At 10:11, it was still rather even.
So, a safe 19th will be greatly welcomed at Sincil Bank in May.
18Bolton Wanderers
Credit to Steven Schumacher for not preparing this Bolton side to grind out results, as many previous League One teams do.
Last season’s third-tier play-off winners have gone for every game they’ve played, resulting in decent goalscoring figures but the lowest in the division in terms of restricting opportunities, which Gavin Bazunu helped hide until his recent injury.
It is working, though, and Bolton is gaining valuable points, particularly away from home. However, they will be disappointed that they did not leave Pride Park with anything last Friday after taking a deserved lead before the break.
They’ll be OK if they get their home form in order. Even yet, finishing 18th is more than satisfactory for the freshly promoted team.
17Cardiff City
Cardiff completes the promoted trifecta, and, like Bolton, they are receiving praise for simply “going for it.” You can’t deny that the ex-third-tier duo has delivered some of the most exciting games of the season thus far.
Only Middlesbrough have more xG than Brian Barry-Murphy’s team, yet they are currently ranked 21st in xGA. This is mainly owing to a genuine availability shortage in the back. Dylan Lawlor, Calum Chambers, and Will Fish have already lost substantial time this season.
In any case, this Cardiff side has a huge ceiling under the Irishman, and if they can tighten up at the back between now and the new year, they might enter the second half of the season as true underdogs in a late play-off drive.
As it stands, Opta believes the Bluebirds will provide lots of excitement and goals on each end before finishing 17th.
16Bristol City
Aside from Watford and Burnley, the mood around Bristol City is possibly the worst in the division as we approach the international break. While the ire is directed at the above-mentioned decision-makers, manager Michael Skubala is currently facing criticism from Robins fans.
A 5-0 defeat at Ashton Gate, with Norwich City scoring more goals in their own backyard than they have all season, will not help, and the bulk of the support is already sick and tired of this idea.
This was never going to be an easy road, but fans want to see some results right away. All eyes will be on what the board does over the next few weeks. Opta believes that their present form will result in a lower-mid-table finish.
15Blackburn Rovers
There’s been a lot to enjoy about Tony Mowbray’s Blackburn Rovers side. Given the ongoing unhappiness with Venky ownership and the dismal summer transfer window preceding into this season, they have a strong underdog mindset.
But Mowbray and co. have helped exceed expectations, with many believing this may be the year they return to League One.
Blackburn have now won more league games at Ewood Park than they did the entire season before, and the type of brave football they’re playing is typical of a Mowbray team, but it’s pleasant to witness nonetheless.
They’ve benefited from some great clinical finishing from Andri Gudjohnsen, who has 10 goals from only 20 shots this season, and his goals have helped them climb into the top half as of writing. This prediction anticipates a minor drop-off.
14Wrexham
Just as it appeared that Wrexham manager Phil Parkinson was under pressure, he collected four points from a series of games against Middlesbrough and Wolves before the break to help balance the scales once more.
Perhaps that explains why the Red Dragons are predicted to finish in the bottom half. They’re fairly good defensively, but they lack the creativity and attacking purpose to really threaten a run in the top eight this season, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve created the fewest significant opportunities this season.
The debate over whether Wrexham have reached their peak under Parkinson’s leadership will rage on throughout the campaign. A 14th-place projection suggests that they have.
13Millwall
Millwall have been one of the most injury-prone teams in the early stages of the season, but you get the impression that they are also slightly off the pace in terms of overall performance. At least compared to last season.
The Lions haven’t been brilliant defensively, which is not typical of an Alex Neil team. Calen Taylor, Jake Cooper, and Zak Sturge have started all of their games so far, which raises some suspicions.
Perhaps once Lukas Jensen returns, things will improve. Half of their clean sheets this season came from the two games he started at the beginning of the season. However, it appears that Millwall needs to improve in other areas before reaching the levels we know they are capable of.
Dropping out of the play-offs outright will be a disappointment given the promise they showed last season. Alex Neil will be hoping that this break will allow some of his freshly returning players to spend more time on the training pitch and get back up to speed.
12Portsmouth
Portsmouth have been quite the surprise gift this season, and they have really kicked into gear in this short stretch of games between international vacations. After losing to Southampton, John Mousinho’s side went six games unbeaten before the close loss to Stoke City.
They were also collecting points from good clubs at the time, including Norwich City, Millwall, Wolves, and Swansea City. Any concerns about a third consecutive season facing relegation back to the League One has been rapidly dispelled after 15 games this year.
Pompey have done an excellent job defensively, both in terms of restricting chances and keeping the ball out of the net. According to Opta, they, like Wrexham, must find that cutting edge going ahead in order to seriously challenge for the play-off spot.
11Sheffield United
As previously said, Sheffield United would have been in the top eight if they had come away from a winless Charlton side with all three points, reflecting on a much-improved stretch of games since the last break.
That being said, the seven clubs they’ve faced in that block are, on paper, among the worst in the division. You can only beat what’s in front of you, but it’s natural to be sceptical about whether the Blades are currently a play-off contender.
We’ll know more on Boxing Day, when Sheffield United will have played Southampton, West Ham, West Brom, QPR, and Middlesbrough as part of an eight-game run, but for now, being on the outskirts appears to be adequate.
10Norwich City
Norwich have risen to the top of the Championship standings after winning four games in a row prior to the international break. Furthermore, only West Ham has scored more goals than Philippe Clement’s team.
Like Sheffield United, those victories have come against out-of-form opponents, but the Canaries’ sheer dominance in those games, particularly away from home, where they have won their last three by a 12-1 aggregate scoreline, gives hope that they will be back in the play-offs within a few weeks of action resuming.
Ultimately, Norwich have struggled against some of the better sides, and with no draws in 15 games, they aren’t exactly limiting themselves to one point when they face them. That, combined with some rather mediocre defensive numbers, has them just missing out.
9QPR
QPR, who now occupy the final top-eight slot heading into the international break, are narrowly outside the revised play-offs.
Julien Stephan’s side has been magnificent at times this season, and their playoff spot is well deserved. Their 5-0 thrashing of Swansea convinced many doubters that they are a force to be reckoned with this season.
However, it remains to be seen whether the Hoops have the consistency needed to stay in the top eight over the following 31 games. They’ve only won back-to-back games once all season, and they lost badly to Birmingham City and Southampton, both of whom are vying for the play-off spot.
Perhaps other teams with greater experience at the top end of this level will just have the know-how to beat them to the post, but it’s another step in the right way for a club that hasn’t even considered the Premier League in a decade.
8Stoke City
Stoke represent the polar opposite of data darlings. The Potters are ranked 18th in the anticipated table, but with Viktor Johansson in goal and outfielders who can routinely score goals, you don’t need to be on the right side of the underlying figures.
Stoke have won the most games in the Championship this season, which is not something I expected to say in November, but Mark Robins’ side has been well worth it. They have won five consecutive away games, which is really outstanding.
Even better, they lost their first three games. Over the last 12 games, they’ve averaged 2.41 points per game, which is title-winning form. There’s no way it’ll endure, but that’s what everyone has said before every Stoke game for the past month, and they’ve kept winning.
Opta predicts a little dip from their current title push, but a play-off spot for the first time since their exit from the Premier League in 2018 will be widely welcomed at the bet365 Stadium.
7Swansea City
The international break could not have come at a better moment for Vitor Matos and Swansea FC. The South Wales team appeared to be cruising ahead of their home encounter against West Ham, but that setback has sent them spiralling, and they have now lost four of their last five games.
Granted, two late goals at Portsmouth, an early red card, and another late concession at Birmingham add colour to dismal results, but the game before that saw them thrash Blackburn 4-0, so the Swans have not fully gone off the boil.
However, they have lost their lead and are again in sixth place at the break. They’re still three points behind the leaders, but this run of play may have dampened Premier League interest in their head coach, which might be viewed positively in the long run.
The supercomputer believes a title fight is unlikely, but they’d bet heavily on themselves in the play-offs.
6West Brom
It is clear that West Brom’s start this season is more than just a continuation of the new manager bounce under James Morrison. This is a very good Baggies team, led by a very good young head coach.
Isaac Price appears to be making the step-up that everyone at the Hawthorns knew he was capable of making since signing for the Baggies in January 2025, and the recruiting this summer has been excellent, resulting in a highly popular team.
As the fixture calendar begins to tighten during the Christmas season, questions about depth will be raised, but if West Brom can go out and into the new year undamaged, they may believe they have a legitimate shot at the top two.
Even if they fall short, their recent displays against West Ham and Southampton will give them confidence that they can make it via the play-offs.
5West Ham United
West Ham United will also benefit from the schedule break. With two away games in his first five days in command, Scott Parker is unlikely to have had time to unpack his belongings at the training field.
However, those two games provided enough of food for contemplation. Defensively, they are still not where they need to be, and while the second half at Cardiff and the defeat at Blackburn featured decent attacking numbers, scoring goals has never been a problem for the club.
Despite their four-game losing streak, West Ham still has the league’s highest goal difference, are one point outside the play-offs, and are six points behind Birmingham, who are now in first place.
There is plenty of time to turn things around, and there aren’t many points to catch up on. Let’s see how they do in the first few games after the break, now that Parker has spent some time working with the club.
4Birmingham City
Birmingham are the current league leaders, having won all but one of their games in this brief seven-game stretch between international breaks, with their only loss coming against a very strong Cardiff team in the Welsh capital.
They don’t win by the odd goal, either. Chris Davies’ side is totally dominant on the scoreboard, having scored at least three goals in four of their six triumphs, including victories over QPR and Millwall.
The win over Swansea, however, seemed to confirm their promotion ambitions, and with a relatively uncomplicated run of games following a trip to Stoke after the break, this may be a Blues side right in the mix heading into a January season in which they will undoubtedly strengthen.
Opta believes that three sides will be slightly stronger, however.
3Southampton
It has been stated numerous times this season that if the four-point deduction had not occurred, Southampton would be in this or that place. If this latest supercomputer prognosis is correct, Tonda Eckert’s side will lose automatic promotion.
The Saints entered this past weekend with the division’s joint-best record, and if they won at Preston, they would be the only club with the most points.
They’ve continued to impress even without talisman Cyle Larin, picking up significant wins in difficult situations such as at West Ham, Norwich, and the South Coast derby against Portsmouth during the last month.
However, the minus four will continue to linger over them. Saints have done well to eliminate it and secure a play-off spot, but there is still work to be done to place themselves among the top two.
2Wolves
Wolves have had an interesting return to the Championship. Still, not many fans are convinced by Cesar Peixoto, but the Old Gold have been around the top of the table all season and are only one point behind the leaders.
They have the league’s second-best xG difference, the best defensive underlying figures, and having the likes of Fer Lopez supplying Adam Armstrong, who appears to be making progress, is a recipe for success at this level.
It’s not like they just beat poor teams and now face a sombre run till the halfway mark of the season. They return to action with home games against Charlton and Derby, and will only face three current top-10 teams between now and the new year.
Obviously, when you’re an ex-Premier League side in the Championship, there’s an expectation to win every week, but the repercussions from every dropped point gives off a different mood than the standings suggests. According to Opta, Wolves fans may end up becoming the most unhappy fanbase in history after finishing second.
1Middlesbrough
Despite a slight hiccup in the final week leading up to this break due to the absence of Will Lankshear, Opta believes Middlesbrough will finish the season at the top.
Prior to those past two games, Borough were on a roll, with the patented ‘Hell-ball’ flowing much more freely in victories against Bolton and Charlton, in particular. Even in their previous goalless draw with Watford, the Teessiders produced enough chances to win four games but failed to convert.
It’s clearly not as simple as ‘if Lankshear stays fit, Middlesbrough wins the league,’ but having someone that prolific on the end of those opportunities strengthens their title credentials significantly.
Everyone at the Riverside will be hopeful that the 21-year-old can return in time for the match against Bristol City. If he is, Borough might not look back after regaining the top place.
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