Summary
A supercomputer predicts which team will win the 2024-25 Champions League.
Liverpool and Arsenal are both among the favourites following strong performances in the competition’s inaugural league phase.
Despite their poor performance thus far, Real Madrid has been given a chance to win the championship.
The 2024-25 Champions League Round of 16 matches are here, and fans and analysts alike are still making predictions for the continent’s premier club championship. While many expected Real Madrid to maintain their supremacy after completing the long-awaited Kylian Mbappe trade this summer, Los Blancos have slipped slightly, and Liverpool’s fantastic start to the tournament has prompted many to believe Arne Slot’s side can go all the way.
Following the controversial new league phase, which has seen the likes of LOSC Lille and Aston Villa emerge as potential surprise packages, Opta’s supercomputer has simulated the remainder of the campaign in order to predict which club will end the season as European champions. The data specialists have compiled an interesting breakdown of where each club is most likely to finish in the tournament’s league phase based on their run-throughs, as well as a ranking of the teams in order of who are the favourites to go all the way and win the championship.
Their data was compiled from a vast number of simulations to determine which team has the best chances based on their current circumstances. While some supporters may be disappointed with their chances, others may be pleasantly delighted by how well they are predicted to perform in the run-up to the Allianz Arena, Munich-based final on May 31, 2025.
Final League Phase Table
A reminder of where things are right now at the end of the league phase.
The opening league stage has concluded, with eight match days determining which clubs have moved directly to the knockout rounds (the top eight) and which must compete in a playoff to gain a berth in the Round of 16 (ranks 9th to 24th). It’s an excellent moment to review how things ended.
Key highlights include Liverpool and Barcelona finishing first and second, putting them in prime position for an easier trip to the final in Munich. Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and surprise package Lille were all close behind, with the Ligue 1 club upsetting last season’s champions, Real Madrid, with an astonishing 1-0 victory.
Teams that did not fulfil expectations, such as the aforementioned reigning European champions Bayern Munich, PSG, and Manchester City, will now play an additional match to advance to the Round of 16. Pep Guardiola’s side had to stage a stunning second-half comeback against Club Brugge to advance to the final matchday. See the final table below.
Pos
Team
Pts
1
Liverpool
21
2
Barcelona
19
3
Arsenal
19
4
Inter Milan
19
5
Atlético Madrid
18
6
Bayer Leverkusen
16
7
LOSC Lille
16
8
Aston Villa
16
9
Atalanta
15
10
Borussia Dortmund
15
11
Real Madrid
15
12
Bayern Munich
15
13
AC Milan
15
14
PSV
14
15
PSG
13
16
Benfica
13
17
Monaco
13
18
Brest
13
19
Feyenoord
13
20
Juventus
12
21
Celtic
12
22
Manchester City
11
23
Sporting Lisbon
11
24
Club Brugge
11
In the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 draw, the match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid stands noteworthy.
What is outrageous is that one of Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will not compete in this season’s Champions League quarter-finals because the two are scheduled to face off in the Round of 16, as are Aston Villa and Club Brugge.
Another domestic rivalry has emerged: Bayern Munich versus Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso and Vincent Kompany will face off again this season, while Liverpool will face a rampaging PSG.
Benfica against Barcelona is also expected to be a thrilling match, albeit the latter are strong favourites to advance. One of Borussia Dortmund and LOSC Lille will go to the quarterfinals, as will one of Feyenoord and Inter Milan.
Arsenal must overcome a tenacious PSV Eindhoven, the only team to defeat Liverpool on the European level this season, in order to capture their first Champions League title.
Favourites to Win Champions League
Arne Slot projected to win silverware in maiden season
The Supercomputer predicts that Liverpool will maintain their league-phase momentum all the way to victory at the Allianz Arena. The Reds are expected to go all the way, with Arne Slot leading the team to a big honour in the form of Europe’s most coveted award in his debut season. Or at least on 17.2% of the occasions.
Arsenal, notoriously, has never won a European trophy, which has been a source of amusement among rival fans. However, while they have fallen to second place in recent years, they have been assigned a 13.6% chance of winning in Germany, trailing only La Liga juggernauts Barcelona (15.4%) and Inter Milan (12.7%).
Despite their inconsistent recent run, tournament record holders Real Madrid (11.6%) remain among the top five most probable clubs to reach the final – and their recent 3-1 victory against Manchester City may assist their cause. Paris Saint-Germain is also one of the top favourites to win the continent’s biggest award in May, with an 8.8% chance.
Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, both from the Bundesliga, are close behind, with chances of 5.8% and 4.8%. The supercomputer has given Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, which is known for its strong defence, a 2.9% probability of success.
LOSC Lille, this season’s surprise package, has advanced to the Round of 16, although their chances of winning are only 1.4%, which is 0.1% higher than Benfica and 0.2% higher than PSV Eindhoven.
Emery’s Aston Villa have done well so far, advancing automatically to the Round of 16, but the supercomputer believes their campaign will soon peak, as indicated by their 1.0% probability of lifting the cup in Munich.
Interestingly, despite their heritage on the continent, Borussia Dortmund has received only 0.8% of the glory. In the final 16 teams remaining at Europe’s top table, Belgium’s Club Brugge (0.7%) and Eredivisie club Feyenoord (0.6%) have the least chance of winning it all.
Favourites to win the 2024-25 Champions League
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning
1
Liverpool
17%
2
Barcelona
15.4%
3
Arsenal
13.6%
4
Inter Milan
12.7%
5
Real Madrid
11.6%
6
Paris Saint Germain
8.8%
7
Bayer Leverkusen
5.8%
8
Bayern Munich
4.8%
9
Atlético Madrid
2.9%
10
LOSC Lille
1.4%
11
Benfica
1.3%
12
PSV Eindhoven
1.1%
13
Aston Villa
1.0%
14
Borussia Dortmund
0.8%
15
Club Brugge
0.7%
16
Feyenoord
0.6%
