Friday night marks the start of the Championship campaign, and the division’s overall quality has made the debates over potential relegation quite fascinating.
Given that this is their first season in the second division since the 1960s, the three recently promoted League One teams all have strong claims to survival, whether it is due to their underdog status or their stature in relation to the rest of the division.
Are some clubs at risk of falling behind as a result of teams investing a lot of money overall? And will there be another instance like Leicester City, when a top team on paper finds it difficult to play at the levels required of them in a club with a very toxic environment?
In any case, Opta has spoken their opinions, and the relegation fight is expected to be fascinating. These are the ten teams most likely to be demoted based on 10,000 simulations of the 2026–2027 Championship season.
10Lincoln City – 14%
In their first second-tier campaign since the 1960–61 period, many critics are already picking Lincoln to fight hard but ultimately lose to relegation.
With a 14% likelihood across 10,000 Championship simulations, they only support this list rather than being near the top, even if Opta has them in the top 10 most likely candidates.
The head coach responsible for the Imps’ 103-point League championship season has left the team. Michael Skubala promoted assistants Chris Cohen and Tom Shaw right away in the final season, thinking that continuity would lead to success.
Additionally, they stated that the new joint managers oversaw most of the training sessions during the previous season, therefore it is still unclear if they had a significant impact on the Skubala-led campaign.
Lincoln won’t need many drastic philosophical changes to become the underdogs this year because of their style of play, which means they don’t play with much of the ball anyway, and the supercomputer offers them a respectable chance of surviving in comparison to their contemporaries.
9Blackburn Rovers – 15.1%
Watching their relegation rivals spend heavily during the current transfer window while Blackburn Rovers have only recruited two new players puts them in a challenging position. Their head coach has flown to meet with the Venky’s in an attempt to convince them to enhance the transfer budget.
However, compared to the previous season, there haven’t been many player departures, therefore Rovers enter the new season with minimal major squad turnover. Under Michael O’Neill, they finished in the top half of their previous season’s last 15 games.
This Blackburn team has enough talent to stay above the finish line, but they will need to rely on Tony Mowbray’s comeback and a low injury rate to succeed in the dugout.
Their chances of surviving will always be low due to the environment around the club, but the supercomputer has other sides with lower odds at 15.1%.
8Bristol City – 17.7%
Both on and off the field, Bristol City has undergone significant change this summer, and the general atmosphere at Ashton Gate is one of optimism for both this season and the future.
As the new sporting director, James Ellis has managed a transfer window full of talented young players, some of whom have excelled in the League. One over the last few years, and the man who won the third tier the previous season is in the dugout.
However, as Charlton Athletic demonstrated last season, some of League One’s top players may find it challenging to make the leap to the Championship. Granted, there is a little more anticipation that players like Dom Ballard, Lorent Tolaj, and Sam Tickle can get started right away.
However, Opta is erring on the side of caution with Bristol City, giving them a 17.7% chance of experiencing an unexpected relegation.Both on and off the field, Bristol City has undergone significant change this summer, and the general atmosphere at Ashton Gate is one of optimism for both this season and the future.
As the new sporting director, James Ellis has managed a transfer window full of talented young players, some of whom have excelled in the League. One over the last few years, and the man who won the third tier the previous season is in the dugout.
However, as Charlton Athletic demonstrated last season, some of League One’s top players may find it challenging to make the leap to the Championship. Granted, there is a little more anticipation that players like Dom Ballard, Lorent Tolaj, and Sam Tickle can get started right away.
However, Opta is erring on the side of caution with Bristol City, giving them a 17.7% chance of experiencing an unexpected relegation.
7QPR – 19.6%
QPR is another somewhat unexpected addition to the list. Like Bristol City, they may try to gatecrash a top eight party in May, but Opta believes they may go the other way at 19.6%.
That might be mostly because to the utter lack of consistency at Loftus Road during Julien Stephan’s first season in charge, as well as the manner they finished the season with eight losses in their final 13 games.
Last year, only Sheffield Wednesday gave up more goals than the Hoops, despite the fact that their defence was ranked in the middle of the table.
Pierce Charles and Denis Cirkin’s arrivals, together with Ronnie Edwards and Jimmy Dunne playing together at the back for the entire season, could boost those figures even more.
They are eighth most likely to be demoted, but they still have the supercomputer to show them wrong.
6Cardiff City – 22.8%
A promising potential for the upcoming season is Cardiff City. Several young, homegrown stars became household names in the Welsh capital because to Brian Barry-Murphy’s great playstyle and philosophy in League One.
However, in the third tier, where the Bluebirds were big fish in smaller seas, it was simpler to accomplish that. Now that things are different, it will be intriguing to watch how these young talents adjust to the Championship as well as whether Barry-Murphy maintains his possession-heavy approach.
The Cardiff City Stadium’s management doesn’t appear to be too interested in funding the team right now. Only four players have joined them in the past two summer windows: Omari Kellyman joined on loan last year, and Nathan Trott, Gabriel Osho, and Jack Moylan signed permanent contracts.
Both Kellyman’s and Ryan Wintle’s deaths will be devastating since Wintle was crucial to the midfield’s coordination and served as the cornerstone of the possession-based strategy.
It’s hardly shocking that the Bluebirds have a 22.8% chance of being relegated given the uncertainty surrounding Wintle’s replacement and the kind of Cardiff team we will see on the field this season.
5Bolton Wanderers – 23.1%
Bolton Wanderers, like Cardiff, entered the Championship as a front-footed attacking team the previous season. Before the upcoming season, it is still unclear how Steven Schumacher might adjust.
Wanderers will benefit from playing in front of more than 20,000 spectators every other week at home, and they will require that boisterous backing because the team is probably weaker going into opening day than it was prior to the play-off final in late May.
Many attacking loan players have either returned to their parent clubs or don’t appear to be planning a second loan stint. Ibrahim Cissoko and Mason Burstow, for example, have joined new teams, and the future of Johnny Kenny and Amario Cozier-Duberry remains uncertain.
There are doubts about Jack Bonham’s goalkeeping skills, whether Ben Davies or Akin Famewo can improve the defence, and whether Ryan Hardie, a former Schumacher striker and Wrexham loanee, can maintain his fitness following a year marred by injuries and unfavourable circumstances.
4Preston North End – 25%
It will be interesting to see which of the three recently promoted teams the supercomputer believes has a greater risk of being relegated. Preston North End, who were demoted precisely 25% of the time over the 10,000 simulations, came in fourth.
The Lilywhites ended in the bottom three according to Opta’s predicted points table, despite being one of the biggest overachievers of their underlying figures previous season. Even if Hull City did as well and are currently in the Premier League, there is still some cause for concern.
In addition, North End hasn’t had a very successful transfer window, despite making a splash early on when they signed Alfie Devine for a club-record £6 million sum. Along with Lewis Dobbin and Daniel Jebbison, who had successful loan stints at Deepdale last year, they have lost captain Ben Whiteman. He is one of four new newcomers.
Preston had a strong start to the previous season before falling in the second half. They could end in the bottom three if they have a bad start.
3Watford – 25.3%
You never know what to anticipate from Watford, and although that might cause the Hornets to go unnoticed and surprise a few people, Opta is forecasting the exact opposite.
This time last season, Watford was actually ranked as the joint-most likely contenders by the supercomputer. Because of how they finished last year, they are currently in third place.
In fact, the Hornets had the third-worst record in the division from the start of the season until its conclusion. Watford only won four of the 22 games played in 2026; only Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester were worse.
2026 championship bottom six
Pos
Club
Pts
GD.
19. Preston North End 23–13
20. Albion West Bromwich
22
-6 21. Stoke City 21
-11 22. Watford 19
-17 23. Leicester City 18
-10 24. Sheffield Wednesday 7
-33 Who knows what Watford will look like this season with another management change and a transfer window full of Udinese additions? I doubt that many Watford supporters are familiar with themselves.
They undoubtedly have quality on the side, enough to keep them from being dropped, but the club’s atmosphere is weak, and their instability in comparison to others could put them in trouble.
2Charlton Athletic – 26.2%
For the first time in ten years, Charlton is starting consecutive Championship campaigns, but the supercomputer isn’t entirely certain they’ll be around for a third.
Last year, Nathan Jones’ team, which included a number of talented third-tier players, finished 19th. While not all of them were successful, players like Charlie Kelman and Sonny Carey, who adjusted successfully the previous season, have the opportunity to take appropriate next steps.
The Welsh manager is also considering switching to a back-four formation, which helped them win a lot of games in League One. Rob Apter, Harvey Knibbs, and Tyreece Campbell will undoubtedly profit from that shift, as will new players like Millenic Alli and a returning Karlan Grant.
That certainly carries the danger of possibly disclosing more objectives. Last year, Charlton was small and hard to defeat, and a major factor in their victory was the 58 goals they gave up. Nevertheless, only Blackburn and Sheffield Wednesday scored fewer.
Opta ranks the Addicks as the second-most likely team to lose this season, but conceding more while still scoring more could be the secret to their success.
1Stoke City – 31.1%
There is a significant difference between second and first, and it is startling that Stoke City has been demoted 31.1% of the time in 10,000 simulations.
However, the statistics do support that. The Potters would have been much more in danger of relegation if they hadn’t been in the top two throughout the first few months of the season.
In fact, only Sheffield Wednesday, who won seven of the 32 games played between November 8 and the end of the season, scored less points than Stoke. The Potters won three and lost eleven of their final 20 games.
Despite this year’s squad investment, Opta believes that not enough has been done to address the relegation form across a respectable sample size.
Since being demoted from the Premier League in 2018, Stoke has placed between 14th and 18th in each of their eight Championship seasons. For all the wrong reasons, this year may defy that trend.
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