The first international break has arrived, and after a frantic first month in the Championship, clubs are enjoying a much-needed three-week respite.
Except for Portsmouth, every second-tier team has already played at least eight games in all competitions this season. Those who advanced to the EFL Cup third round have played 11 games, with Saturday/Tuesday fixtures for the last four weeks.
There hasn’t been much time to reflect and examine until now. With three weeks between games, managers will be able to help settle in some new players, work on tactics, and try to either kick on after a bad start or maintain a fast start.
It’s also a good time to analyse pre-season projections and see how they’ve changed. According to Opta’s supercomputer, the Championship expected standings looks like this after eight gameweeks.
24Preston North End
Preston North End has a history of starting quickly and then weakening as the season progresses. So, starting the year with only four points in eight games is cause for concern.
The Lilywhites became the first team in the division to fire their manager, Paul Heckingbottom, following a 1-0 home loss to Lincoln City, and despite a promising start under Jason Euell at QPR on Saturday, the 10-man Hoops coming from two down to salvage a point isn’t the comeback North End were hoping for.
Whoever comes in to permanently replace Heckingbottom will face a difficult assignment. According to Opta, things are unlikely to improve at Deepdale anytime soon.
23Watford
Watford are currently ranked last in Opta’s predicted Championship table after the first half of the season. As a result, it is unsurprising that the Hornets are expected to be relegated.
Alessio Dionisi has struggled with injuries throughout his time at Vicarage Road, which has contributed significantly to what has been a very disappointing campaign, both statistically and in real life.
Indeed, Watford is presently ranked 20th, with the second-worst xG differential, third-worst xG, and third-worst xGA.
Amin Nabizada has been a real bright light, and it appears that the 19-year-old will have to pull out all the stops if Watford is to avoid the third tier for the first time since the 1997/98 season.
22Cardiff City
Unlike Watford, Cardiff City have been the statistical darlings of the Championship season so far. Brian Barry-Murphy’s high-possession playstyle is theoretically effective, but the finishing touch has been severely missing.
Cardiff have the most shots on goal in the division so far, the most touches in the opposition’s box, and the fourth-highest predicted goals tally. Ideally, a team with those stats would not be in the relegation conversation at all.
However, the supercomputer anticipates that these missed opportunities will continue, or that it would be impossible to maintain this pace. In any case, Bluebirds fans will be hopeful that their season-opening triumph over Charlton Athletic last weekend would prove Opta incorrect.
21Derby County
Derby County hasn’t had a fantastic start to the season, but Opta believes the team now in the final relegation spot will be barely outside it by May 1st.
John Eustace’s side has also struggled with injuries during the hectic start to the new season, but the performance level has fallen far short of what Championship fans have come to expect from Eustace’s squads.
The Rams coach frequently thrives at elevating clubs that, on paper, aren’t particularly strong. So far this year, however, it has not worked, and they were near the bottom of the table until their 93rd-minute equaliser against Burnley on Saturday.
Derby only won one game out of ten last season, and see how that worked out. Those at Pride Park will be hoping for the same results this year.
20Charlton Athletic
Charlton are presently tenth in the division at the break, thus the supercomputer predicts an 11-place drop over the next 38 games, which may well occur.
The Addicks enter the break with no wins in their last five games, scoring only twice and handed Cardiff their first win of the season in the penultimate game before the international break.
Nathan Jones’ squad is once again defying their underlying statistics. They don’t produce much, but they’re difficult to break down, and when they get ahead, they don’t give up points.
Finally, it’s clear why they’re in 20th place, but if that holds true come May, many Charlton fans will be pleased with sticking in the second tier.
19Bolton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers are one of the few Championship teams whose lengthy break comes at the wrong time, as Steven Schumacher’s side has rebounded from four straight defeats with consecutive victories.
So far, the Trotters have also faced stiff competition and delivered strong performances. They took on West Ham United and scored twice, followed by four goals at Norwich on Sunday.
Defensively, there’s a lot to be desired, and Bolton may need to rely on Gavin Bazunu to repeat his performance against Cardiff a little over a week ago, but they should have enough moving forward.
Any League One play-off winner should be pleased with survival, and finishing 19th in their first season back after seven years would be a plus.
18Burnley
Burnley is one of only two teams in all three EFL leagues without a win as they enter the international break, having drawn four and lost four of their first eight games.
Under Nicky Hayen, performances have been embarrassingly poor, and while they did surrender in the 93rd minute on Saturday against Derby, denying them their first win, they also arguably did not deserve to win, with only six shots on goal at home.
Furthermore, they’ve already conceded more in eight games this year than they did in the entire 2024/25 season under Scott Parker – though that probably speaks more about that team than this one.
In the last two seasons, relegated Premier League teams have instantly fallen through the trapdoor. Opta does not believe that will happen at Turf Moor, but an 18th-place finish would be quite disappointing.
17Blackburn Rovers
If you told any Blackburn Rovers supporter in May that they would finish ahead of their East Lancashire rivals a year later, they would have thought they had been promoted back to the Premier League. That is not the case, but there is enough of bragging rights.
Blackburn have shocked many people this season. Tony Mowbray continues to demonstrate his ability as a head coach at this level, as the squad’s investment and current injury record at Ewood Park would almost certainly result in relegation.
Instead, Rovers have attacked the opposition, taken advantage of opportunities, and earned points against some of the division’s heavyweights, like Middlesbrough and Millwall.
Given the circumstances, Tony Mowbray’s comeback to 17th place would be considered a success.
16Portsmouth
Portsmouth are 19th going into the international break, but they have a game in hand that, if won, would put them in the top half.
That demonstrates how tight the league is at this early stage, but it also suggests that Pompey might finish the season in 16th place. John Mousinho’s side has been in the centre of the pack in the bulk of vital data, and according to the predicted tables, they are 14th.
It’s not glamourous, but with the aim this season to become a more established Championship team and finish above the fighting relegation pack, this will be viewed as a triumph at Fratton Park.
15Stoke City
Opta predicted Stoke City would be relegated this season before a ball was kicked, with a 31.1% chance. Three games in, that prognosis appeared to be spot on, with the Potters at the bottom of the table after three defeats.
But credit to Mark Robins; with his back against the wall and some shouting for his head, he’s led Stoke to four victories and a draw in five games coming into the break, putting them in the play-offs for the next several weeks.
They’re not creating many chances moving forward, but they’re taking them at a high rate and are also difficult to break down during this remarkable run.
The supercomputer does not believe they will retain play-off form, but the talk about them going down appears to have died down dramatically.
14Sheffield United
Sheffield United have not been the underlying stats’ best buddy so far. Chris Wilder’s team has been the worst in the division in getting shots off, and they have also allowed the second most shots against them through eight games.
The mood at Bramall Lane is currently somewhat negative, following a week in which the Blades have lost three consecutive games, the second of which came in the EFL Cup against League Two club Fleetwood Town.
However, Sheffield United’s loss at Stoke on Saturday was their 11th game of the season. They appear to be one of the teams taking advantage of the longer break, not just to get more players back from injury, but also to get some rest before the next game.
This Blades team has too much quality to be in serious danger of relegation, but Opta still predicts a bottom-half finish at the conclusion of the season.
13Lincoln City
Lincoln City has had an excellent first season back in the second tier since 1960/61. They are 12th at the break, and the supercomputer predicts they will remain in or around mid-table for the rest of the year.
The Imps have been fantastic without the ball. They haven’t scored many goals, but unlike Charlton, who don’t score many yet still allow opponents chances, Lincoln’s defensive metrics are among the best in the league.
Their playstyle hasn’t changed much since their time in League One, and three 1-0 away wins after going close to defeating Middlesbrough at the Riverside on the first day demonstrate how efficient their away game plan is.
No wins in four home games is a little issue, but one Opta believes Tom Shaw and Chris Cohen can handle it.
12QPR
Following a solid start to the season, QPR enter the break on a four-game winless streak, with the last three draws coming against good clubs or, in Preston’s case, sides with a man advantage.
Julien Stephan’s side have also outperformed expectations this season, and the transformation that has been underway at Loftus Road for the past year or so is beginning to seem extremely good.
There hasn’t been this much hope for QPR in a long time, and while the supercomputer predicts a slight decline over the next 38 games, a top-half finish while flirting with the play-offs throughout the season is a significant improvement for a team that has finished in the bottom 12 in the previous four years.
11Bristol City
Bristol City, like QPR, are clearly working towards a goal under new manager Michael Skubala, and they sit eighth in the revamped play-offs going into the break. However, like the Hoops, Opta does not believe they will be able to maintain that level.
After a challenging game against Millwall on the opening day, the Robins have put in some strong displays. Even in their 4-1 loss to Southampton, the Saints outclassed them.
They’ll still have an outside chance of finishing in the top eight as the season progresses, but some other teams, like Southampton, may need just a little more to justify a promotion push this year.
10Norwich City
Norwich City has scored the third-most goals in the Championship this season. They have also made the most concessions.
Finally, it is the latter that explains why Philippe Clement’s team, which many saw as possible outsiders in a contest for the top two before a ball was played, is now 17th and, according to the supercomputer, will miss out on the play-offs entirely.
The shoulder injury that took Mo Toure off against Bolton could be fatal to the Canaries season, depending on the severity, but much more care must be given at the back as well.
Norwich not only concedes more opportunities than other teams, but goalkeeper Vladan Kovacevic isn’t helping them as much as he should. Sorting out the backline could improve this projection, but Opta aren’t sure.
9Wrexham
Wrexham’s 2-1 victory over Southampton sent Phil Parkinson’s side into the international break on a strong note, especially after a 6-0 defeat at West Ham would have raised further issues.
As it turns out, the Red Dragons have a better record after eight games this season than they had last. They were able to kick on and get into play-off contention as the season progressed last year, so perhaps the same will happen this year?
Wrexham played eight games in 2026/27, compared to 2025/26.
Season
2025/26
2026/27
Games
Opta predicts Wrexham will miss out on the expanded play-offs this season, despite having 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats.
8West Bromwich Albion
West Brom suffered a disappointing derby defeat at Wolves on Sunday, but don’t let a poor performance detract from James Morrison’s unexpectedly strong start to his first full season in charge.
While everyone expected the Baggies to put last season’s relegation scare behind them and get back on track, few predicted them to be play-off candidates thus early in Morrison’s rebuild.
However, Isaac Price and Aune Heggebo have improved significantly under the new manager, and Jimmy-Jay Morgan has adapted in wonderfully to Championship life.
It may have been unexpected at the start of August, but West Brom’s return to play-off contention could be on the horizon.
7Birmingham City
Birmingham City have had a rough start to the Championship season, but they enter the break in 10th place, just outside the play-offs.
Chris Davies’ team has been a little more robust than they were last season, playing more without the ball and seeking to move forward quickly when they do, and it appears to be working a little better so far.
There is an anticipation that the Blues will improve as well, and with them not having had a particularly sluggish start, improving may seem like gatecrashing a play-off party in early May.
6Millwall
Millwall have been plagued by injuries this season, so remaining in the top half after eight games is a huge testament to Alex Neil’s efforts. If they hadn’t blown two-goal leads against Middlesbrough and West Ham in the last week, they’d be second.
The first half of Saturday’s Dockers Derby demonstrated how dangerous and relentless the Lions can be pushing forward when everything is clicking, even without important players.
The three-week break comes at an ideal time for Millwall, who will hope to get a few more players off the injured list before their trip to Preston on October 10.
And once they do, sixth place may be the most they can hope for after finishing third last season.
5Southampton
Southampton would have finished fourth if not for the four-point deduction, thus while Tonda Eckert’s team has been among the best in the division, they have not yet regularly performed at a top-two level.
During this international break, many people will be watching what occurs at St Mary’s. The FA hearing is scheduled to determine what penalty, if any, Eckert will face for his role in the spygate scandal, which prevented his team from competing in the play-off final.
If the German manager is banned, perhaps these forecasts will falter, with the South Coast side needing to bring in new ideas in the dugout, potentially disrupting the season.
If not, Southampton may feel more free to play the way they have against Millwall and Bristol City this season. Ultimately, there is too much uncertainty for the supercomputer to predict anything higher than fifth at this time.
4Swansea City
Swansea City are the Championship frontrunners heading into the international break, having been a joy to watch in the early stages of the season.
Their position at the top of the pile is also correct. Vitor Matos’ team has been the best defensive outfit thus far, playing good, possession-based football and creating enough chances for their talented forwards to take.
The primary disadvantage of Swansea’s start is that they’ve used a lot of sluggish starts. Half of their games have been against teams now in the bottom seven, and their single loss this season came against Southampton, a usual promotion candidate.
So you can see why Opta expects some of the larger hitters to pass them, but if the Swans finish fourth come May 1st, few in the white half of South Wales will be grumbling.
3Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough appear to have yet to break out of second gear, and some at the Riverside will hope that the ongoing three-week break will assist new recruits find their feet a little better.
Borough are currently joint-second in the league, which must be very hopeful given that Kim Hellberg’s team has another level to attain.
Getting a more familiar, steady backline while, once again, reducing the quantity of missed chances will be critical for Middlesbrough in the coming weeks if they are to climb into the top two and remain there for long.
Unfortunately, Opta believes a number of former Premier League teams are still too powerful.
2Wolves
Cesar Peixoto’s wolves are starting to establish their rhythm. A good performance in any derby can help jumpstart a season, and the Old Gold were well-deserved winners against a fellow strong-starting team in West Brom on Sunday.
The level of the group Peixoto is dealing with is unparalleled. Fer Lopez appears to be the top player in the division; Raul Jimenez, assuming his knee injury is not catastrophic, will likely get close to 20 points because he is still a level above this one.
And, defensively, the underlying metrics are quite solid, with fewer than one xG per game and the fewest shots per game in the division.
Those underlying numbers make it tough for the supercomputer to place Wolves outside the top two at this point.
1West Ham United
However, at this point in the season, West Ham are in first place. They may have been shaken up in the first half at the Den on Saturday, but their response after the interval demonstrated why they are among the favourites.
Going forward, no team is better, nor is there a team with more attacking options, whether it’s Jarrod Bowen or Manor Solomon out wide, Joel Piroe and Taty Castellanos in the middle, or center-back Konstantinos Mavropanos, who has four goals already.
Nuno Espírito Santo can improve their defence to consolidate their title aspirations. However, their 11 goals surrendered are not in the bottom half of the league, so this should not be a major concern.
West Ham were first in the anticipated standings before a ball was kicked, and that has not changed after eight games.
xz
