Wolves and Blackburn Rovers will play in what should be an exciting opening match of the Championship season on Friday.
This marks the start of nine months filled with highs, lows, and sheer entertainment during what is expected to be one of the most competitive Championship seasons ever.
The promotion race is difficult to forecast because two well-established top-flight teams are falling, the other demoted team has achieved 100 points in each of their previous two seasons at the level, and those who were extremely near to promotion last year are expected to improve.
What does Opta think, then? Two of their top four most likely candidates for promotion have finished in the top two in the previous two seasons (Burnley and Leeds United in 2024–2025 and Coventry City and Ipswich Town last year). However, Sheffield United was at the top of this particular list this time last season, with a 41.1% chance of promotion. They came in at number thirteen.
Therefore, it’s always preferable to be on this list than not, even though it’s not a given. According to Opta, these are the nine Championship players who are most likely to be promoted this season.
9Birmingham City
At this level, Birmingham City’s aspirations are limitless. Owner Tom Wagner expressed his wish for a double promotion at this time last year, and the club’s current management and the additions they were making suggested that it would very well occur.
However, not all of those newcomers were able to work well together, and there were some obvious teething issues. Only five players have signed, and two of them were here for portions of the previous season, so this summer appears to be a little more deliberate.
Chris Davies’ team may easily surpass their 10th-place result from the previous year with a bit more consistency within the team and the rise of August Priske, who, although it’s only preseason and one EFL Cup game, looks poised to take the next step in leading the Blues line.
However, Opta is only offering them a 7.2% probability of promotion, with no percentage odds of winning the championship, because the Championship appears to be quite competitive this year.
8Sheffield United
Opta believes Sheffield United has a remote possibility of making a comeback to the Premier League this season, despite a significant decline from their 41.1% chance of promotion at this time last year.
Although Chris Wilder’s team isn’t as powerful or has as many game-changers as previous Blades teams, there are still enough of excellent Championship players on it, despite the fact that many critics have written them off this season.
A strong core consisting of Patrick Bamford, Callum O’Hare, Sydie Peck, and an upcoming Harry Souttar might help the team make the playoffs. A really strong team is emerging if Michael Cooper can regain his form and Oli Arblaster and Kalvin Phillips can stay healthy.
In addition, Chris Wilder, who was promoted out of the division with poorer players, is still among the division’s best managers. It’s the eighth-best in this projection, but the odds are still only 8.7%.
7Norwich City
Norwich City has a lot of momentum from the latter two thirds of the previous campaign, when Philippe Clement turned a team that was in second place when he took over in mid-November into one that finished in ninth.
At the time of Clement’s appointment, Norwich had the fifth-highest number of points in the league; only Southampton had a better record in 2026 than the Canaries.
Championship standings as of November 18, the day Philippe Clement joined Norwich City
Pos
Club
Points
Goal disparity
1. Southampton 62 + 29 2.
Coventry City 61 + 25 3. Ipswich Town 61 + 23 4.
Norwich City 56 + 16 6. Millwall 58 + 18 5.
The Middle Brough
51 + 19
Norwich has also benefited from a relatively quiet off-season. Carrow Road has only added four new players, but given the effort put forth in earlier windows, it’s arguable that they haven’t needed a complete roster overhaul.
The Canaries can simply continue where they left off last year with continuity in both the squad and the dugout. They could be a true dark horse if they avoid getting hurt. They have an 11.8% chance of placing in the top two and a 6% chance of winning the championship, according to Opta.
6Millwall
Last season, Millwall had their best result since the 1993–94 season, however they were still two points short of automatic promotion.
On the eve of the new season, they have managed to retain the backbone of that team. However, if Femi Azeez is still a Millwall player by September 1, it would come as a huge surprise and might move an already sixth-best odds even higher on this list.
Alex Neil’s team appears prepared to contend even though the division appears to be stronger. According to Opta, the Lions have a 6.9% chance of winning the championship in May and a 13.8% chance of improving and finishing in the top two.
5Burnley
Even while the situation at Burnley doesn’t appear as promising as it did before to recent second-tier seasons, it’s not surprising that all three recently relegated Premier League teams are in the top five since Opta evaluates possibilities rather than certainties.
Nicky Hayen, the new manager, will have a difficult task this season because the Clarets have won 100 points in each of the last two Championship seasons under two different managers.
However, the speed at which Burnley has been moving this summer hasn’t given many supporters hope. Turf Moor’s management didn’t appoint a new head coach until July 10. Their competitors had already entered preseason play by that point.
They still need to add personnel to the team because they still have a number of Premier League-caliber players who might leave this summer.
Opta believes Burnley has a 13.5% chance of promotion and a 7% chance of winning their second Championship title in five years, despite all indications pointing to a mini-hangover.
4Wolves
Under head coach Cesar Peixoto, who appears promise thus far but it remains to be seen how he adjusts to Championship football, Wolves are also starting a new era of sorts, returning to the second division for the first time since winning it in the 2017–18 season.
But there’s no denying the calibre of this Wolves team going into the new campaign.
Even though they are both 35 years old, Kieran Trippier and a returning Raul Jimenez are clearly still capable of playing in the Premier League; Adam Armstrong is currently the closest thing to a reliable goal scorer at the Championship level, and Andre might be among the league’s top players.
If things work out under the new leadership, the Old Gold might be difficult to stop because they are surrounded by other talented young players. Opta has a 19.2% chance of being promoted and a 10.3% chance of winning the championship.
3Middlesbrough
As the new season approaches, Middlesbrough is an incredibly exciting prospect. During Kim Hellberg’s first half-year in charge, they were outstanding to see, but towards the finish, they lost pace at crucial times.
The Borough team is arguably stronger than it was at the end of the season, despite losing captain Dael Fry and Championship Player of the Season Hayden Hackney.
On his debut, Will Lankshear has already demonstrated his potential in front of goal. Sebastian Berhalter, another rookie, assisted on that goal, while Max Arfsten also contributed from the left.
Having had a full preseason to adjust to Kim Hellberg’s demanding, high-intensity style, Leo Castledine will feel like a new addition. Similarly, some of the other players may not have performed as well as they could have in the latter part of last year.
Every indication points to them taking off and, most importantly, staying put when it counts most. Opta has an 11% chance of winning the championship and a 21% chance of being promoted.
2Southampton
Southampton is now undefeated in 21 league and play-off games; their only loss in the previous 25 games came against Manchester City in the FA Cup semifinal.
The Saints will begin this season with a four-point deduction after being found guilty of spying on Middlesbrough prior to their play-off semi-final first leg. They were also eliminated from the play-off final.
There is little question that Tonda Eckert is an excellent young manager, and this Southampton team is still among the best in the league, regardless of how the previous season finished and whether that remarkable run was marred by it.
The Saints scored 68 points from 33 games under Eckert, and even a point reduction shouldn’t prevent them from finishing in the top two after 46 games this season if they can maintain that level of play.
Opta has a 23.7% chance of getting promoted and a 13% chance of winning the title, which would be a significant achievement considering the deduction.
1West Ham United
Many people believe that West Ham United will win the Championship this season, and the supercomputer concurs.
The Hammers are in the second division for the first time in the 2011–12 season. Although they required the play-offs to earn automatic promotion fifteen years ago, their team is in a far better position to avoid that and place in the top two.
Jarrod Bowen, Taty Castellanos, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Mads Hermansen, and Edson Alvarez were among the starting eleven that Nuno Espirito Santo managed to field in their EFL Cup victory over Portsmouth last weekend.
This may be one of the greatest Championship teams ever on paper if everyone stays, and we know at least Bowen is, under Nuno’s leadership. There could not be much stopping West Ham this year, even though titles aren’t earned on paper.
In 17.2% of the 10,000 simulations, West Ham won the championship, and in 29.4% of the cases, they were automatically promoted. Additionally, they were demoted 1.2% of the time, although it just serves to highlight how erratic this league can be.
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