The 2025/26 season has been underway for several months, with several leagues across Europe kicking off as clubs try to establish a foothold in the campaign’s early phases. We’ve seen that in the Premier League with Mikel Arteta outperforming his rivals, and Ligue 1 and Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain have also had a strong start to their domestic season.
Meanwhile, in Spain, the La Liga season is underway. Barcelona was the side to beat last time out, winning the title by four points over Real Madrid. The two titans are set to duke it out once more, with Atletico Madrid waiting in the background, ready to pick up the pieces.
Most would say it’s far too early to determine a winner. But where is the fun in that? Thankfully, the professionals at Opta have run 10,000 simulations using their accessible data tools and have been able to predict where each team in Spain would finish by May 2026, when all 20 clubs have played all 38 matches.
Real Madrid triumphs over reigning champions Barcelona.
In terms of who is most likely to win, Real Madrid’s Xabi Alonso appears to be the favourite. Los Blancos won 68.91% of the simulations, putting them at the top of the overall standings. Then there’s incumbent champions Barcelona, who won 25.8% of the simulations, putting the top two in Spain together in little under 95%.
As expected, Atletico Madrid, who have won just four of their first nine games, was one of only two teams with a 1% or higher likelihood. Diego Simeone’s Los Colchoneros, who have always been overshadowed by archrivals Real Madrid, have a 3.4% chance of winning.
In total, eight teams were given victory odds, but aside from the top three, only one had a success percentage greater than one percent, Villarreal – 1.5 percent. Real Betis fell short by 0.42%, despite signing Antony, who was fantastic on loan during the second half of the 2024/25 season. Athletic Club is next up in sixth position.
The Race for European Spots
While Spain’s traditional top three remain title contenders, La Liga is shaping up to be significantly more competitive behind them. In a data model that simulated the season 10,000 times, all 20 teams finished in the top four at least once. With five Champions League slots theoretically available again, as they were last season, a fifth-place result may be enough to secure a spot at Europe’s top table, putting all 20 clubs mathematically in contention.
Villarreal and Real Betis are the front-runners for fourth. Villarreal has a 62.7% chance of finishing there, while Betis is close behind at 29.6%. While Villarreal adjusts to big departures, Athletic maintains a strong core. Nico Williams and Inaki Williams stay, while top scorer Oihan Sancet adds firepower to a side that could have scored more goals last season.
Espanyol and Rayo Vallecano are likely to finish seventh and eighth, respectively. Real Sociedad, now led by Sergio Francisco and considered one of the strongest squads in Spain’s top flight, is more likely to be relegated (19.62%) than to finish in the top four (0.79%). That’s surprising given that they made it to the Europa League’s final stages last season.
Valencia Participated in the Relegation Dogfight
In the early stages of the 2025/26 season, there was no clear favourite for relegation, giving hope to newly promoted sides Real Oviedo, Elche, and Levante. Eight matches into the current season, the model shows that two of the aforementioned triad of Spanish teams are still the most likely to return to the second division.
Oviedo, who is back in LaLiga for the first time since 2000/01, was eliminated in 64.9% of the 10,000 simulations, whereas Elche is expected to finish 13th with a point total of roughly 46. They are given a 12.10% chance of being demoted to the second tier.
According to the estimates, Oviedo is unlikely to keep their La Liga status, which means Santi Cazorla’s fairytale may have an unpleasant finish. Levante, the Segunda champions last season, has the second-best probability of staying up among the promoted trio, with a 68.82% chance of not dropping back to Spain’s second division.
Getafe, which narrowly avoided relegation last season, was demoted in just 8.01% of simulations, while Valencia, previously one of Spain’s greatest teams, was projected to be demoted in 22.34% of simulations. Mallorca, surprisingly, is also in the mix, with a 21.15% chance of remaining in the top flight by the end of the season.
Supercomputer La Liga’s Overall Positions
Rank
Club
Average points
1.
Real Madrid
86.8
2.
Barcelona
80.4
3.
Atlético Madrid
70.2
4.
Villarreal
66.9
5.
Real Betis
60.7
6.
Athletic Club
53.8
7.
Espanyol
53.1
8.
Rayo Vallecano
51.9
9.
Getafe
48.1
10.
Osasuna
47.3
11.
Sevilla
46.9
12.
Celta Vigo
46.2
13.
Elche
45.9
14.
Alaves
45.3
15.
Real Sociedad
43.9
16.
Mallorca
43.4
17.
Valencia
43.1
18.
Levante
40.7
19.
Girona
34.6
20.
Real Oviedo
34.5
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