Slots by Arne What are the chances of each Champions League team winning in Munich? Liverpool wants to win it for the first time since the 2018–19 season, Real Madrid wants to add to their record, and Arsenal, led by Mikel Arteta, is also in the running.
A new era of European football began this season. A 36-team league stage preceded the start of the Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League. However, some would argue that the tournament’s business end, the knockout play-off round, is now here.
Opta has simulated all 24 of the remaining 2024–25 Champions League teams 10,000 times in order to assess each team’s likelihood of making it to each round, from Manchester City to Celtic, and to forecast the winner at the end of May 2025.
The highlight of every 2024–2025 Champions League Play-Off and Round of 16 matchup is Real Madrid vs. Manchester City.
Liverpool, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and Lille have advanced directly to the round of 16 by placing in the top eight in the new league phase of Europe’s elite table.
There are still eight slots available, though. In order to determine who the eight clubs stated above will face in order to advance to the quarterfinals of this season, two-leg play-off matches are being used.
The first of eight play-off matches is between Paris Saint-Germain and Stade Brest, both of which are in France. Borussia Dortmund and Sporting CP, who defeated Pep Guardiola’s team 4-1 in the league phase, will face either Aston Villa or Lille, two Premier League teams that compete in Ligue 1.
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City is the most important match of all. The winner will play either Bayer Leverkusen or Atletico Madrid in the Round of 16, while the other will be eliminated at the play-off stage.
Road to Munich. 🏆🇪🇺 pic.twitter.com/qdsbqiJstB
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) January 31, 2025
Bayern Munich and Celtic will face off, while Juventus or PSV Eindhoven, captained by Thiago Motta, will face either Arsenal or Inter Milan in the Round of 16. A similar destiny awaits the winner of Feyenoord vs. AC Milan.
Sporting CP’s matchup with Borussia Dortmund, a Bundesliga team captained by recently hired Niko Kovac, is another intriguing matchup. Depending on the draw, the winner of the two-leg match will either play LOSC Lille or Aston Villa.
Every Champions League Play-Off and Round of 16 Matchup in 2024–2025
Play-Off Connections
Paris Saint-Germain versus Stade Brest
Dortmund vs. Sporting CP
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
PSV Eindhoven versus Juventus
Benfica versus AS Monaco
Brugge Club vs. Atalanta
Bayern Munich vs. Celtic
AC Milan vs. Feyenoord
Round of 16 Ties
Paris Saint-Germain or Stade Brest versus Barcelona or Liverpool
Borussia Dortmund or Sporting CP versus Lille or Aston Villa
Real Madrid or Manchester City versus Bayer Leverkusen or Atletico Madrid
Arsenal vs. Inter Milan or Juventus or PSV Eindhoven
Liverpool or Barcelona versus AS Monaco or Benfica
Lille vs. Aston Villa or Club Brugge or Atalanta
Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen versus Celtic or Bayern Munich
Arsenal or Inter Milan versus Feyenoord or AC Milan
The two leading teams continue to be the Champions League sides’ chances of winning the Premier League.
On February 21, 2025, each team will find out who they will be playing in the Round of 16, but how likely is it that each club will advance to the next round? Eight of the 16 teams that have previously been confirmed will advance to the next round.
Following that, the eight victors will go to the quarterfinals, and so on, until the important final at Munich’s Allianz Arena at the end of May 2025. Which teams, though, stand the best chance of making it? Let’s examine the computations made by Opta.
Only two teams have better odds than Inter Milan, one of the eight teams to win the Champions League back-to-back, with a 48% chance of making it to the final and a 27.7% chance of making it to the German capital. The Nerazzurri (14.5%) have a 14.5% chance of winning, while Liverpool and Arsenal, the Premier League duo, are the heavy favourites with a 24.6% chance after dominating the league phase.
The Gunners, who are based in north London, have never won the Champions League, but they hope to change that this season. Opta has given them a 16.6% chance to do so in order to help secure cutlery under Arteta’s watchful eye.
Even though they are the current champions, Opta has stated that they have only a 4.4% chance of winning the title again because of Real Madrid’s difficult play-off schedule and poor play. Even less likely are Manchester City (3.2%) and Bayern Munich (2.1%).
Slot’s team is the overwhelming favourite to win the premier club competition in Europe this season. Based on Opta’s calculations, they have a 24.6% chance of adding another Champions League trophy to their collection.
Arsenal trails by just 16.6%, and Inter Milan, the 2022–2023 runners-up, is the third favourite (14.5%). Borussia Dortmund, Feyenoord, and Celtic, on the other hand, have a 0.1% chance. According to calculations, Stade Brest has no chance.
The Winning Chances of Every Champions League Team
Club
The final 16 (%)
Quarterfinals (%)
Finals (%)
Last (%)
The victor (%)
Liverpool
One hundred
76.8
61.7
40
24.6
The Arsenal
One hundred
75.3
49.8
30.2
16.6
Milan Inter
One hundred
75.2
48
27.7
14.5
Barcelona
One hundred
63.8
43.1
21.2
9.5
Saint-Germain, Paris
85.7
36.9
24.5
12.6
6.3
Real Madrid
53.1
32.1
16.4
8.7
4.4
Real Madrid
One hundred
49
19.7
8.6
3.9
Leverkusen Bayer
One hundred
49.9
19.9
9.
3.7
Atlanta
73.4
49.3
18.7
7.9
3.5
City of Manchester
46.9
27.6
13.2
6.5
3.2
The Bayern Munich
73.1
34.9
13.
5.8
2.1
Playing CP
66.2
38.1
13.3
4.8
1.8
Villa Aston
One hundred
45.9
13.3
3.7
1.3
Milan AC
65.7
16.6
7.
2.5
One
Juventus
55.6
17
6.8
2.4
0.9
Lille LOSC
One hundred
42.2
10.5
2.8
0.8
Benfica
56.4
12.5
5.9
1.7
0.6
PSV Eindhoven
44.4
10.4
3.5
1.1
0.4
Monaco AS
43.6
8.3
3.6
One
0.3
Club Brugge
26.6
11.
2.4
0.6
0.2
Dortmund Borussia
33.9
13.4
2.6
0.6
0.1
Feyenoord
34.3
5.6
1.7
0.4
0.1
Celtic
26.9
6.5
1.1
0.2
0.1
Brest Stade
14.3
1.6
0.5
0
0
