In brief
According to an early simulation, Liverpool has a 56.3% chance of winning the Premier League again the following season.
For the fourth straight season, Arsenal is predicted to finish in second place.
Leeds, Burnley, and Sheffield United, the three promoted teams, were all predicted to drop back to the bottom.
The figures for the 2025–2026 Premier League season have already been run by OLBG data experts, and the preliminary projections provide an intriguing look into the future. The focus is already turning to the drama of the upcoming season, with Leeds United and Burnley preparing for their eagerly anticipated return to the promised land, Liverpool formally declared champions, and the relegation trapdoor securely closed behind three unfortunate clubs.
In fact, this doesn’t even account for the impending transfer reorganizations or the two Championship promotion spots that are still up for grabs before the current season ends. However, football never stops for very long, so the crystal ball is already being dusted off to see what might be in store for the upcoming season.
If the predictions come true, Liverpool supporters will have a lot to be happy about, but for Tottenham, Manchester United, and Arsenal, it seems like another season they’d prefer not to see on the highlight reel, each for different reasons.
Liverpool Tipped To Retain Premier League Title
Arsenal are expected to finish second for a fourth successive season
With sincere interest in Xavi Simons, Milos Kerkez, and Alexander Isak, to mention a few, the Reds are already planting the seeds for a summer transfer window unlike any other in their history. The most recent models indicate that this should be sufficient for Arne Slot to accomplish the unimaginable and lead Liverpool to consecutive league victories during his first two seasons at Anfield.
Liverpool is predicted to win their 21st English league title and become the most decorated club in the country, with a 56.3% likelihood of repeating their victory from this season. With a 41.4% title likelihood, Arsenal appears destined for a frustrating fourth consecutive runners-up finish, while Manchester City is predicted to finish third with a 37.2% chance of regaining their previous success.
Aston Villa and Newcastle Compete for the Champions League
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest simply lose out.
With an 18.7% chance of placing in the top four, Newcastle United’s Eddie Howe project appears poised to continue to pick up steam and, at last, bring some consistency to its already impressive record of achievements. The simulation shows the Magpies finishing fourth, narrowly missing out on Chelsea, who are expected to take the final Champions League slot, after winning the League Cup this season, breaking a historic 70-year trophy drought.
Aston Villa is predicted to contend for a top-five finish once more after making an incredible run to the quarterfinals of Europe’s premier competition in their first continental campaign in thirty years. But predictions indicate they’ll drop to sixth place and be content with a Europa League spot. Unai Emery has previously won the trophy four times and would undoubtedly welcome the opportunity to win a fifth, so he won’t be too bothered by that.
Nottingham Forest, this season’s surprise gift, completes the list of teams expected to place in the top seven. Nuno Espirito Santo’s team will be well aware of the razor-thin line between thriving on their breakthrough season and reverting to their previous troubles, though, as a mere 2% chance of relegation also looms. As they round out the top 10 together Brentford, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are anticipated to accomplish the former.
Man United and Tottenham Fight To Get Past Their Mid-Table Weaknesses
The two ‘big six’ clubs are more likely to be relegated than to celebrate.
The news that Fulham will likely finish eleventh will probably be welcomed with a collective shrug from the supporters. This is an anticlimax for the Craven Cottage supporters, who may be quietly upset that their early-season promise was dashed before it could develop into something more significant. The true annoyance, however, is reserved for Manchester United and Tottenham fans, whose teams seem stuck in mid-table mediocrity with no immediate way out.
This Man United team was recently called “the worst in the club’s history” by Ruben Amorim, and it’s difficult to dispute the simulation’s forecast of a 12th-place finish. Any more decline next season will simply add to the already dire situation at Old Trafford, as the 20-time league champions are already headed for a record-low finish this season. They have an alarming 8.9% likelihood of being relegated right now.
Given the overhanging cloud of managerial uncertainty, Tottenham’s predicted 13th-place finish won’t be shocking. It’s not surprise that the Lilywhites are predicted to sink further into mid-table obscurity given that Ange Postecoglou has declared his decision to resign regardless of a possible Europa League victory.
Conversely, Everton may be cautiously happy with a 14th-place result as they work to stabilize the team in the face of persistent financial issues. The Toffees are undoubtedly in the process of establishing long-term foundations, with the Texas-based Friedkin Group now in charge and a long-awaited relocation to the new Bramley-Moore Dock stadium imminent.
However, Brighton & Hove Albion would be devastated by a forecast drop to 15th position, which may mean the end of a once-fantastic recruitment and development pipeline. Wolves, who have a 24.7% chance of being relegated, barely escape the final safety slot.
West Ham, currently in 17th place with a 25.1% chance of relegation, deserves that questionable honor. It’s turning out to be a lesson in longing for change as life after David Moyes continues to go apart because sometimes you get precisely what you wished for.
Burnley, Sheffield United, and Leeds United are all expected to finish below the dotted line. All Three Promoted Teams Will Drop Straight Back Down
Similar to this season, the prediction is that all three promoted teams will only make a brief appearance in the Premier League before being immediately sent back to the Championship. The simulation predicts that Sheffield United will return to the first division, joining Burnley and Leeds United, but will be demoted again a year later.
Only four seasons have seen all three promoted clubs escape relegation: 2001–02, 2011–12, 2017–18, and 2022–23. However, as a trend develops, it’s become harder for newcomers to do more than simply make a brief impression on England’s largest stage as the gap between the Premier League and the Championship grows every year. Below is the complete 2025–2026 Premier League simulation table:
Place
Group
Position most likely (%)
Relegation prospects (%)
1.
Liverpool
56.3
0.00
2.
The Arsenal
41.4
0.00
3.
City of Manchester
37.2
0.00
4.
Newcastle United
18.7
0.3
5.
Chelsea
16.5
0.3
6.
Villa Aston
12.3
0.9
7.
Forest of Nottingham
10.2
2.0
8.
The Bournemouth
9.8
2.7
9.
The Crystal Palace
8.6
2.9
10.
Brentford
8.5
4.3
11.
Fulham
8.1
4.7
12.
United Manchester
8.5
8.9
13.
Tottenham
9.3
12.9
14.
Everton
9.3
15.7
15.
Brighton
9.0
17.3
16.
Wolves
10.9
24.7
17.
West Ham
11.8
25.1
18.
Leeds United
14.9
35.6
19.
Burnley
22.1
48.7
20.
United of Sheffield
70.9
93.0
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