In terms of results, Millwall has had a strong season; ahead of the Boxing Day round of games, Alex Neil’s Lions team is in the top six.
With seven wins, seven draws, and eight losses from their 22 games played previous season, Millwall was in the bottom half of the Championship standings.
They have only suffered seven losses so far this year, but Alex Neil’s team has managed to transform some of those draws into winners, winning 10 of 22 games.
But few of those victories have been convincing. Five of them were 1-0s, while eight of them were won by a single goal. Some could argue that’s traditional Millwall, but they’ve been inconsistent defensively and have suffered significant losses when they have lost.
Only four clubs in the entire division have given up more goals than the Lions, and no team in the top 16 has scored less than them thus far. Apparently, even if Alex Neil is content with his team’s current standing, he will be aware that more work needs to be done in order to secure a spot in the play-offs come May.
The fundamental metrics for Millwall aren’t yet those of a team in the playoffs.
When it comes to fundamental data, Millwall ranks in the middle of the pack.
According to Fotmob, they are ranked 12th in the Championship for expected goals, 16th for goals per match, and 12th for expected goals against, with four other clubs allowing the same number of goals, leaving just four other teams worse off.
Those aren’t eye-catching stats, and they’re certainly not stats that critics would identify with a team aiming for the top six.
Millwall, on the other hand, appear to be extremely strong while leading. They’ve won 10 of 12 when they’re ahead, but they squandered two late leads to draw with Oxford United and Derby County.
They’re content with their one-goal advantage, which puts them joint-second in the league for clean sheets, but concerns will be raised about whether it can be sustained over the course of the season.
One thing is certain: those at the Den wouldn’t mind a few more comfortable two or three-goal margins of victory, and perhaps more of those performances would help push their underlying figures to the top of the standings.
Millwall’s triumphs haven’t been convincing this season, while all of their defeats have been by two or more goals.
Millwall has had a streaky season thus far. Alex Neil’s squad has won ten games in a row, four of them came in October and three in late November/early December.
These streaks were followed by a four-game winless streak and a three-game winless streak, the latter of which is still active.
Only Millwall’s 3-0 win against West Brom and 2-0 victory over Stoke City had resulted in more than one goal.
While this implies that, in close, even games, the Lions have the willpower to maintain a high level of effort for 90 minutes, score the winning goal, and then shut out a team for the rest of the game, there haven’t been many convincing wins.
On the other hand, all seven of Milwall’s losses this season have appeared to be convincing, with all of them coming by at least two goals.
However, when it comes to Middlesbrough, Wrexham, Portsmouth, and Hull City, they were chasing equalisers before surrendering in the final 10 minutes, which may have skewed the numbers in their favour.
Overall, 11 of their 31 goals conceded this season have come after the 80th minute, which is three more than any other team in the division.
Alex Neil needs to tackle the offensive issue first, and defensive problems will even out as a result.
So, based on the facts, Millwall’s current situation appears to be fairly ordinary. However, the Lions’ ability to defend a one-goal advantage should indicate that they merely need to improve at the top end to take the lead more regularly.
Femi Azeez has been the standout forward at the Den this season, scoring six goals. Mihailo Ivanovic has been solid but hasn’t thrilled after a breakout year in 2024/25, and Alex Neil’s team hasn’t provided much of an attacking threat.
Even in games when they were expected to chase a goal after falling behind, their projected goals were far lower than in games where they won 1-0, indicating a serious lack of inventiveness across the roster.
Finally, if the Lions are to finish in the top six by May, they will need a game-changer to complement Azeez, whether through a January move or in-house. This will help them achieve more goals, both expected and actual.
Then, if the winning streak continues, the defensive stats will improve with the offensive ones.
However, given how tight and tough the play-off competition is shaping up to be this season, not much should be left to chance, and Alex Neil should consider making defensive changes in order to reduce opposing opportunities and extend an already remarkable clean sheet count.
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