In the midst of the turmoil with domestic football seasons in full flow and the gears still spinning on the summer transfer market, the Champions League returns – and it returns with a bang. Luis Enrique and Paris Saint-Germain will be hoping to defend their titles this season, but others will be hard on their heels.
As of the start of 2024/25, there were numerous high-profile changes to how Europe’s top table ran and worked, the most notable of which was the introduction of the league phase. All 36 teams, up from 32, will face eight opponents and be ranked accordingly.
Those in the top eight received automatic entry into the competition’s knockout rounds, those finishing ninth to 24th played in play-offs for the final eight spots, and those finishing 25th to 36th were immediately eliminated.
And now that all 36 teams are informed of their first eight encounters, let’s have a look at what AI has projected would happen at the end of the league phase, from the table toppers to those who will leave the competition at the earliest opportunity.
36-25 – Eliminated Teams
Starting with one of the minnows in this season’s Champions League, Karait Almaty, followed by Cypriot side Pafos, which announced the acquisition of David Luiz over the summer. They are anticipated to pick up only two points from their eight matches.
Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta were Europe’s dark horses, but that cannot be true under Ivan Juric, whose side lost their curtain-raiser 4-0. Despite being anticipated to finish ahead of Stade Brestois, the Italians are expected to collect only three points from their eight league games.
Shakhtar Donetsk Bodo/Glimt are expected to finish 32nd and 31st, respectively, while Villarreal, who qualified with a fifth-place result in La Liga last season, are also expected to do poorly under manager Marcelino Garcia Toral.
Meanwhile, Slavia Prague and Celtic, two massive clubs from their respective countries, are projected to finish with seven points. Marseille and Olympiacos outscored the aforementioned duo in terms of points, but it was insufficient to secure passage or even a play-off spot.
36-25 – Eliminated Teams
Rank
Club
Points
36.
Kairat Almaty
1
35.
Pafos
2
34.
Atalanta
3
33.
Stadium Brestois
4
32.
Shakhtar Donetsk
5
31.
Bodo/Glimt
5
30.
Villarreal
6
29.
Qarabag
6
28.
Slavia Prague
7
27.
Celtic
7
26.
Marseille
8
25.
Olympiacos
9
24-9: Playoff Places
since previously stated, placing outside of the top eight does not spell doom for those finishing between 24th and ninth, since they will compete for the final nine seats. Newcastle United, for example, is establishing itself as a fixture at Europe’s top table.
Eddie Howe’s Magpies have previously proven to be a powerful European force, but this time around, AI predicts they will only get nine points from the league phase, barely scraping into the play-offs. PSV Eindhoven and Galatasaray are just 10 points ahead.
Bayer Leverkusen’s directors will be hoping Erik ten Hag’s early dismissal is justified. In terms of Champions League finishing position, AI predicts 20th with 11 points. Porto is only ahead of them, with 12 points.
Despite the engine room combo of Scott McTominay and Kevin De Bruyne, Napoli will have to settle for a play-off berth according to AI, with a score of 12 points placing them just below Club Brugge, who surprised AS Monaco in their season opener.
Eintracht Frankfurt, who will miss the talismanic presence of now-Liverpool striker Hugo Ekitike, will finish ahead of the Belgians on goal difference. They too are expected to finish with 13 points, one fewer than Juventus and Benfica.
Tottenham Hotspur are in with a chance to amaze at the top table after winning the Europa League last season, but a 15-point tally will leave them in 13th place, just behind Sporting CP on goal difference.
Chelsea, the defending Club World Cup winners, are up next, with Enzo Maresca and his teammates expected to score 16 points, the same as Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund. Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid is projected to conclude the league campaign with 17 points.
24-9: Playoff Places
Rank
Club
Points
24.
Newcastle United
9
23.
PSV Eindhoven
10
22.
Galatasaray
10
21.
Ajax
11
20.
Bayer Leverkusen
11
19.
Porto
12
18.
Napoli
12
17.
Club Brugge
13
16.
Eintracht Frankfurt
13
15.
Juventus
14
14.
Benfica
14
13.
Tottenham Hotspur
15
12.
Sporting CP
15
11.
Chelsea
16
10.
Borussia Dortmund
16
9.
Atlético Madrid
17
8-1 – Automatic progression.
Predictably, all eight teams are in with a chance of winning the competition. Christian Chivu’s Inter Milan, with a powerful two-striker tandem of Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thruam, edge Diego Simeone’s side for the final slot for clubs who automatically progress.
After spending a lot of money in the summer transfer window, Arne Slot’s Liverpool are expected to succeed against the continent’s crème de la crème, finishing with 18 points and a goal differential of +11.
Barcelona, led by Hansi Flick, has Lamine Yamal and Raphinha among their ranks and leads the Premier League champions on goal difference. The Spanish team is anticipated to gain 18 points in their first eight games, the same total as the Harry Kane-inspired Bayern Munich.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, one of the biggest clubs to never win the Champions League and will, therefore, be aiming for silverware this season, and Real Madrid, the competition’s record winners (15), are on 19 and 20 points, respectively.
The reigning competition champions, as expected, are making light work of their league phase. PSG will begin as the team to beat, and AI believes they will gain 21 points – equivalent to seven out of eight wins – in the league phase. Manchester City, led by Pep Guardiola, is now at the peak.
8-1 – Automatic progression.
Rank
Club
Points
8.
Inter Milan
17
7.
Liverpool
18
6.
Barcelona
18
5.
Bayern Munich
19
4.
Arsenal
19
3.
Real Madrid
20
2.
Paris Saint Germain
21
1.
Manchester City
22
xz
