This week marks the start of the UEFA Champions League, and although supporters will be making predictions about who will win the trophy in Budapest the following year, they will also be wondering who will win the Golden Boot.
Erling Haaland led Manchester City to a treble in 2023, the last time a Premier League player took home the Champions League Golden Boot. After his team’s dismal season due to injury issues, the Norwegian, who scored ten goals for Pep Guardiola’s Cityzens, will be eager to repeat this performance.
Haaland is one of the top 20 picks to finish as the top striker in Europe’s biggest club league this season, according to AceHoods’ supercomputer. Before rounding each likelihood up or down to the closest decimal place, it has projected the expected xG using analytical performance data, market values, and club performance information.
10. Raphinha (Assumed Objectives: 7.2)
We begin with Raphinha, the co-winner from the previous season, who was outstanding for Barcelona under Hansi Flick. With three goals in four games this season, the Brazilian has had an equally encouraging start.
The former Leeds United player’s position may be the primary factor preventing him from being strongly favored to go back-to-back statistically. If Marcus Rashford, who is on loan from Manchester United, can regain his form in Catalonia and Robert Lewandowski stays healthy, he might also be sharing the goals more often than he did the previous campaign.
9. Hugo Ekitike (assumed objectives: 7.2)
If it weren’t for a certain Swede showing up at Anfield on deadline day, it’s safe to assume that Hugo Ekitike may have been higher on this list. Despite having four Champions League matches under his belt, the French forward has had an incredible start to life on Merseyside.
Ekitike has already scored a number of goals, including a brilliant competitive debut goal in the Community Shield against Crystal Palace. Before Liverpool broke the British transfer record to get Alexander Isak, he appeared destined to start at number nine.
8. Ousmane Dembele (Assumed Objective: 7.7)
Ousmane Dembele, who won Player of the Tournament for his performances in the previous season’s Champions League, was the best player. The Frenchman, who is expected to win the Ballon d’Or next month, played a key role in Luis Enrique’s team’s eventual triumph in Europe.
After suffering a hamstring injury recently, Dembele’s hopes of winning the Golden Boot this season are in jeopardy, which may have disastrous repercussions for the reigning European champions. However, with eight goals, including two against Liverpool and Arsenal, he did place in the top 10 in the competition previous season.
7. Viktor Gyokeres (Assumed Objective: 7.7)
Despite scoring three goals in four games, Viktor Gyokeres has received unjustified criticism in the early going of his Arsenal tenure. As seen by his record-breaking 97 goals in 102 games at Sporting CP, there is no doubting the Swede’s prolific goal scoring ability.
Despite his former club’s difficulties competing with the best on the continent, the Gunners’ new number nine has six goals in eight Champions League games. For Mikel Arteta, whose team advanced to the semifinals the previous season, he might be a game-changing addition.
6. Alexander Isak (Achievable Objectives: 8.6)
With the arrival of Alexander Isak, Arne Slot may have the most tantalizing attacking options of any European team. The Swede, who made it plain he wanted to leave Newcastle United and return to Anfield, cost Liverpool £125 million.
Isak will be under a lot of pressure to succeed right away, but throughout his time in England, he has proven that he is as good as they come in front of goal. He is expected to be one of the Reds’ primary offensive outlets because he was without a doubt the biggest acquisition of the window.
5. Harry Kane (Assumed Objectives: 9.7)
Harry Kane is a proven finisher, so it has been the standard for him to be among the front-runners in any Golden Boot race in any competition in which he competes. Since moving to the Allianz Arena, the England captain has emerged as Bayern Munich’s key man. Last season, he scored 26 goals to help Vincent Kompany’s Bavarian powerhouses win the Bundesliga again.
Following Bayern’s elimination from the quarterfinals the previous season, Kane will be faced with attempting to propel the team back into the Champions League. In his own country, he will be looking forward to facing Chelsea and Arsenal, against whom he has scored 15 goals in 21 games.
4. Mohamed Salah (Assumed Objective: 10.7)
Isak and Ekitike are dependable in front of goal, but they aren’t exactly Mohamed Salah. He is the third Liverpool player to appear in the top 10. With 29 goals in the previous season, the Egyptian won the Golden Boot in the Premier League.
However, with only three goals in nine games, Salah was shockingly not very well in the Champions League. However, Slot’s team as a whole was only able to advance to the round of 16, and their summer business will only help them perform better as a team and aid the club’s third-best goal scorer.
Liverpool’s team is predicted to win the trophy even though none of them place among the top three Golden Boot contenders. They had a 20.4% probability of winning the European championship, according to a supercomputer.
3. Lewandowski, Robert (Anticipated Objectives: 11.1)
Many people have forgotten Robert Lewandowski’s 11 goals in 13 games during the 2024–25 Champions League season because of Raphinha’s Golden Boot victory. Before ending his career, the renowned Polish vocalist will be eager to win the European championship a second time, demonstrating that age is simply a number.
After losing to Inter in one of the most memorable semi-final matches in the history of the competition, Barcelona was regrettably unable to advance to the final last season. However, Lewandowski’s injury prevented him from playing in the first leg, which ended in a 3-3 tie. Hansi Flick might bring up this point with his Catalans in order to start a retaliation tour.
2. Kylian Mbappe, who is expected to score 12.4.
Since the La Liga powerhouses were unable to hold onto their title or advance past the Champions League quarterfinals, some could conclude that Kylian Mbappe’s first season at Real Madrid was a letdown. At the Santiago Bernabeu, the French forward was supposed to make a big impression, and it seems he took the criticism of his start personally.
Mbappe, who fought for years to win a European title at the Parc des Princes, would have been furious to see PSG win. He has, however, been unleashed with four goals in as many games this season, restoring his position among the continent’s most renowned talents in Xabi Alonso’s team, who are shocking outsiders to win the title they have won a record 15 times.
Erling Haaland (anticipated objectives: 13.8)
After suffering from a knee injury during the previous season, Erling Haaland is back and better than ever, which indicates that Europe has a problem. With a slim margin over Mbappe, the Manchester City forward is expected to earn the Golden Boot in the Champions League.
This season, Pep Guardiola wants his Norwegian to be healthy and cause as much havoc in Europe’s top league as he has in the Premier League. Even though the Cityzens had a lackluster start to the season with two wins and two losses, he already leads the goalscoring rankings with five goals in four games.
Since making his Champions League debut in September 2019, Haaland has scored an amazing 49 goals in 48 games. At the age of 25, he is already ranked 10th in the all-time goalscoring rankings.
The 2024–25 Champions League’s Top 20 Most Likely Golden Boot Winners
Rank
The player
Club
Probability of Golden Boot
Estimated xG
1.
Haaland, Erling
City of Manchester
12.4%
13.8
2.
Mbappe Kylian
Real Madrid
10.8%
12.4
3.
Lewandowski, Robert
Barcelona
9.3%
11.1
4.
Salah Mohamed
Liverpool
8.8%
10.7
5.
Kane, Harry
The Bayern Munich
7.7%
9.7
6.
Isak, Alexander
Liverpool
6.3%
8.6
7.
Gyokeres, Viktor
The Arsenal
5.3%
7.7
8.
Ousmane Dembele
PSG
5.3%
7.7
9.
Hugo Ekitike
Liverpool
4.7%
7.2
10.
Raphinha
Barcelona
4.7%
7.2
11.
Lamine Yamal
Barcelona
3.9%
6.4
12.
Joao Pedro
Chelsea
3.1%
5.8
13.
Cole Palmer
Chelsea
3.2%
5.8
14.
Nicolas Jackson
Bayern Munich
2.6%
5.3
15.
Bukayo Saka
Arsenal
3.0%
5.7
16.
Lautaro Martinez
Inter
2.4%
5.1
17.
Omar Marmoush
Manchester City
1.9%
4.7
18.
Vinicius Junior
Real Madrid
1.7%
4.6
19.
Julian Alvarez
Atletico Madrid
1.6%
4.5
20.
Bradley Barcola
PSG
1.6%
4.5
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