The 36 clubs competing for the trophy are generating excitement for the Champions League’s return next week, and after 10,000 simulations, the Opta supercomputer has determined who has the best chance of winning the competition.
The trophy is currently held by Paris Saint-Germain, who will be fighting to win it again after Luis Enrique’s team defeated Inter Milan 5-0 in June to win it for the first time. They are not expected to win the trophy, though, and GIVEMESPORT identifies the favourites as well as the outsiders.
36th–21st
Even the top 20 most probable teams to win the tournament don’t include some of the biggest teams. Despite their natural size, Dutch powerhouse Ajax is not expected to win the trophy because of their recent struggles on the domestic and continental stages.
Despite spending a lot of money on new players in the summer, including Leroy Sane and Victor Osimhen, other major clubs like Galatasaray, Marseille, Villarreal, and Monaco struggle considerably to make it to the finals; Monaco was the last to break that pattern in 2004, losing.
Other minnows like Pafos, Qarabag, and Bodo/Glimt are at the bottom of the heap, along with newcomers Kairat Almaty. In actuality, none of the 10,000 simulations saw any team win the trophy, with the exception of Bodo of Norway.
20th–16th
So, into the 20 teams that have a chance of winning the trophy. With a 0.6 percent chance of winning the Champions League, Atalanta is at the top of the list. Their most recent trip was to the quarterfinals in 2019–20.
Given that they have difficult away trips to Real Madrid and Monaco in addition to hosting Dortmund, Sporting, and Benfica, their fellow Italian team and two-time champion Juventus joins them in 19th place.
Rank
Group
Chance of winning a trophy as a percentage (%)
20th
Atlanta
0.6
19th
Juventus
0.6
18th
Real Madrid
0.6
17th
Leverkusen Bayer
0.7
16th
Playing sports
0.8
Sporting and Bayer Leverkusen finish last in the rankings with 0.7 and 0.8 percentage chances of winning the Champions League, respectively; only 70 and 80 of the simulations showed them lifting the trophy. Atletico Madrid has yet to win the Champions League, and that will continue with their 0.6 percent chance of doing so.
15th–11th
Perhaps the biggest surprise in this area is Club Brugge. After losing to Liverpool in the 1978 final, the Belgian team would become the first to win the tournament after winning about 90 of the 10,000 simulations that Opta ran. They have tough away games against Atalanta, Bayern Munich, and Sporting, as well as home games against Monaco, Barcelona, Arsenal, and Marseille.
Thomas Frank’s Tottenham Hotspur team and Borussia Dortmund, who advanced to the 2024 final and have a 0.9 percent chance of winning the championship, join them.
Before their Europa League victory last season, Spurs had not won a major award in seventeen years. However, continental success the previous season and a rush of summer acquisitions saw them win the title in about 110 simulations.
Rank
Group
Chance of winning a trophy as a percentage (%)
15th
Brugge Club
0.9
14th
Dortmund Borussia
0.9
13th
Tottenham Hotspur
1.1
The 12th
Napoli
1.4
The eleventh
Benfica
1.7
Napoli and Benfica, who have 1.4 and 1.7 percentage chances of winning the final in Budapest at the end of May, round up the remaining spots in the tournament.
10th–6th
Newcastle United is considered a better chance than other very large European clubs to make it into the top 10. With Benfica, Athletic Bilbao, and PSV Eindhoven visiting St. James’ Park before away trips to Union Saint-Gilloise, Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen, and current champions Paris Saint-Germain, the Magpies have a comparatively easy run in the league phase after losing their home game against Barcelona to start.
Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Inter Milan, three-time European champions with three, six, and fifteen victories between them, are also joining them. It is surprising that Real Madrid is not in the top five, even though they play teams like Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Benfica.
Rank
Group
Chance of winning a trophy as a percentage (%)
The 10th
Newcastle United
3.0
9th
Milan Inter
3.0
The eighth
The Bayern Munich
4.3
7th
Real Madrid
5.8
Sixth
Chelsea
7.0
In light of this, Chelsea is currently in sixth place, and Enzo Maresca’s team has a six percent chance of winning the tournament due to ~600 estimates.
Fifth to First
Slot Arne
Barcelona, who just missed out on the championship last season, are in fifth place with an 8.4 percent chance of winning it.
After a two-year break following their victory in Istanbul, Pep Guardiola’s City team is in fourth place and has the same opportunities as his former team in Spain as they aim to capture the trophy.
Despite their incredibly difficult run, Paris Saint-Germain, the winners from the previous season, sit in third place with a 12.1 percent probability of winning the championship.
All but one of those teams bring in the top 20 “favourite” teams to win. Home games against Atalanta, Bayern, Tottenham, and Newcastle follow away travels to Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen, Athletic Bilbao, and Sporting.
Rank
Group
Chance of winning a trophy as a percentage (%)
Fifth
Barcelona
8.4
Fourth
City of Manchester
8.4
Third
Saint-Germain, Paris
12.1
Second
The Arsenal
16
First
Liverpool
20.4
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal team is now in second place after winning the trophy in 1,600 simulations run by the Opta supercomputer. The Gunners want to break their six-and-a-half-decade trophy drought.
Additionally, it will propel Liverpool to the top. Although PSG defeated Arne Slot in the round of 16 last season, they appear to have won almost 2,040 of their simulations. Their stock has increased as a result of their Premier League title win from the previ.ous season and an amazing transfer window that brought in Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak. Opta believes the Reds will be battling for the highest prize in club football
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