Using data from the previous five years, a study determined which Premier League teams had been the most “unlucky.”
Compared to other clubs, Manchester City is one of the luckiest because of VAR and injury luck.
Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool are all considered to be among the division’s less fortunate teams.
During the Premier League season, luck frequently makes the difference. Numerous uncontrollable elements might affect a particular match, ranging from several VAR issues to injury concerns scattered across the campaign. The season may thus be significantly impacted, as was the case, for instance, with teams like Liverpool and Arsenal that have lagged behind in title chases in previous years.
While some teams could be lucky enough to reap the rewards, others might feel unfairly treated by something that is essentially beyond of their control. The teams in the Premier League who have been most affected by pure poor luck over the past five seasons have been determined by the specialists at Betsson, and the findings are intriguing. Despite some surprises, several of these statistics support actual occurrences and suggest that luck might play a bigger role in modern football than many realise.
Ranking Elements
The quantity of injuries
Days missed due to injuries
VAR rulings that are controversial
According to Betsson, a final rating out of 10 was assigned after all the statistics were weighted to obtain a total “unlucky score.” Examine the scores in the following table.
The Premier League’s most “unlucky” clubs during the previous five years
Rank
Group
‘Unlucky Score’ overall (/10)
One
Liverpool
8.46
2.
United Manchester
8.10
3.
Chelsea
7.98
4.
Tottenham Hotspur
7.02
5.
Wanderers of Wolverhampton
6.19
6.
United West Ham
6.07
7.
Southampton
5.83
8.
Everton
5.47
9.
The Bournemouth
5.36
10.
Newcastle United
5.36
11.
The Arsenal
5.36
Twelve
Leeds United
4.64
13.
Albion, Brighton & Hove
4.53
14
The Crystal Palace
4.40
15.
The Fullham
3.57
16
City of Leicester
3.57
17
Villa Aston
3.46
18
Brentford
3.45
19.
Forest of Nottingham
2.98
20
City of Manchester
1.91
20–16 Leicester City, Aston Villa, Brentford, Nottingham Forest, and Manchester City
Could the brave be blessed? Maybe because since 2020, Manchester City has been the Premier League’s least unfortunate team. During that time, Pep Guardiola’s team has won every league championship, sometimes by wide margins as well. Records, however, show that the Citizens have frequently benefited from VAR rulings and have also been lucky to escape severe medical department overloads.
In contrast to the majority, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Aston Villa, and Leicester City have also escaped tragedy. Specifically, it appears that the Villans’ luck might have contributed to their run to Champions League qualification under Emery last season. However, the data indicates that the Foxes’ unexpected relegation in the 2022–2023 season might have been caused by their own inadequacies.
Top five ‘unlucky’ Premier League teams over the past five years (20-16)
Rank
Group
Injuries Total (2020–25)
Number of Days Missed Due to Injuries (2022-24)
Positive VAR points for 2023–2025
20.
City of Manchester
136
1,119
6.
19.
Forest of Nottingham
95
2,735
5.
18.
Brentford
97
2,864
3.
17.
Villa Aston
130
2,126
2.
16.
City of Leicester
One hundred
901
0
15–11 Arsenal, Leeds, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Fulham
Despite suffering some serious long-term injuries, Crystal Palace and Brighton have been quite lucky over the past five years, according to the data. Despite their 2023 relegation, Leeds had performed admirably against the odds compared to other teams, spending three of the previous five seasons in the top division.
Given the Gunners’ recent history of scandal, many may be surprised to see them in the bottom half of this ranking. Only two other teams in the league received more VAR interventions than the nine that occurred during the 2023–24 season. All things considered, however, the experts say Mikel Arteta’s players have in fact been on the lucky side of judgements.
Top five ‘unlucky’ Premier League teams over the past five years (15–11)
Rank
Group
Injuries Total (2020–25)
Number of Days Missed Due to Injuries (2022-24)
Positive VAR points for 2023–2025
15.
Fulham
79
1,465
0
14.
The Crystal Palace
147
2,379
One
13.
Brighton
157
2,438
2.
12.
Leeds
151
1,076
0
11.
The Arsenal
124
1,883
-1
10-6 Southampton, West Ham, Everton, Bournemouth, and Newcastle
Newcastle is now in the top 10 after experiencing considerable misfortune, especially in relation to injuries. Only one other side in the competition has seen more days of absence due to injuries than the Magpies, who have accumulated nearly 3,300 days.
From the Toffee’s point of view, Merseyside’s misfortune wasn’t limited to injuries and VAR issues; Everton was hit by what many believed to be a game-ending points deduction the previous season. Nevertheless, manager Sean Dyche was able to steer his team to safety despite the several defeats. On the other hand, the Saints failed to avoid the drop in the 2022–2023 season, albeit the evidence may indicate that chance was a big factor in this case.
Top five ‘unlucky’ Premier League teams over the past five years (10-6)
Rank
Group
Injuries Total (2020–25)
Number of Days Missed Due to Injuries (2022-24)
Positive VAR points for 2023–2025
10.
Newcastle
180
3,283
5.
9.
The Bournemouth
79
2,271
-2
8.
Everton
160
1,839
0
7.
Southampton
133
2,692
0
6.
West Ham
131
1,231
-4
5-1 Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Wolves
Interestingly, four of the top five most unlucky Premier League teams are part of the traditional ‘big six’, with Wolves being the most unlucky team in terms of VAR judgements. Tottenham and Chelsea, both of which are headquartered in London, have suffered numerous injuries recently. Such bad luck might have played a significant role in the Blues’ 2022–2023 season, which saw them finish in 12th place, their lowest league result ever.
Manchester United has also struggled with availability; so far in 2024–2025, just three teams had more players missing games due to injury. They are now the second-unluckiest team in the Premier League due to the large number of players who are prone to injuries. Following one of their poorest seasons in Premier League history, Red Devils supporters might be able to dismiss the majority of the team’s defeat as the result of pure bad luck.
However, Liverpool takes first place here, and even without the statistics, the Reds have suffered greatly in recent years. Fortune has rarely favoured the red side of Merseyside in the last five years, from missing out on the league title by a single point in 2022 to having title challenges ruined by injuries to key players.
Top five ‘unlucky’ Premier League teams over the past five years (5-1)
Rank
Group
Injuries Total (2020–25)
Number of Days Missed Due to Injuries (2022-24)
Positive VAR points for 2023–2025
5.
Wolves
110
1,608
-8
4.
Tottenham
162
2,487
-1
3.
Chelsea
169
3,581
-1
2.
United Manchester
173
2,651
-3
1.
Liverpool
178
2,957
-2
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