In brief
Which team will win the 2024–25 Champions League is predicted by a supercomputer.
Following strong results in the competition’s inaugural league phase, Liverpool and Arsenal are both considered favourites.
Even though Real Madrid hasn’t played well so far, they still have a chance to win the tournament.
Fans and commentators alike are still predicting the continent’s premier club championship as the 2024–25 Champions League Round of 16 matches approach. Although many thought Real Madrid would maintain their supremacy after completing the long-awaited Kylian Mbappe deal this summer, Los Blancos have faltered a bit, and Liverpool’s spectacular start to the tournament has many people thinking Arne Slot’s team may win it all.
In order to determine which team is most likely to finish the season as the European champion, Opta’s supercomputer has simulated the remainder of the season after the contentious new league phase, which saw teams like LOSC Lille and Aston Villa emerge as possible surprise packages. Based on their run-throughs, the data specialists have created an intriguing analysis of each team’s likelihood of finishing in the league phase of the tournament. They have also ranked the teams according to who is the favourite to win the championship.
To determine which team has the best chances given their current situation, their data has been gathered from several simulations. Some fans may be pleasantly surprised by how well they are predicted to perform in the run-up to the Allianz Arena, Munich-based final on May 31, 2025, while others may see their chances with a sense of disappointment.
Final League Phase Table
A reminder of where things stand right now upon the conclusion of the league phase
Eight match days have concluded the first league stage, which has determined which teams (ranked 9th to 24th) have moved directly to the knockout stages (the top eight) and which clubs had to participate in a playoff to guarantee a position in the Round of 16. Now is the ideal moment to review how things ended.
Liverpool and Barcelona’s first and second place finishes, which put them in the greatest position for a simpler route to the Munich final, are among the major highlights. Following closely behind were Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and surprise package Lille. Notably, the Ligue 1 team shocked Real Madrid, the winners from the previous season, with an amazing 1-0 victory.
However, the aforementioned defending European champions, Bayern Munich, PSG, and Manchester City are among the clubs that fell short of expectations and now have to play an additional game to guarantee a spot in the Round of 16. To guarantee their advancement on the last matchday, Pep Guardiola’s team had to pull off a spectacular comeback against Club Brugge in the second half. View the last table below:
Pos
Group
Points
One
Liverpool
21
2.
Barcelona
19.
3.
The Arsenal
19.
4.
Milan Inter
19.
5.
Real Madrid
18
6.
Leverkusen Bayer
16
7.
Lille LOSC
16
8.
Villa Aston
16
9.
Atlanta
15.
10.
Dortmund Borussia
15.
11.
Real Madrid
15.
Twelve
The Bayern Munich
15.
13.
Milan AC
15.
14
PSV
14
15.
PSG
13.
16
Benfica
13.
17
Monaco
13.
18
The Brest
13.
19.
The Feyenoord
13.
20
Juventus
Twelve
21
Celtic
Twelve
22
City of Manchester
11.
23
Lisbon Sporting
11.
24
Brugge Club
11.
2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 Draw
Real Madrid vs Atletico stands out
The fact that Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will not be participating in this season’s Champions League quarterfinals is repulsive since they will face each other in the Round of 16, along with Aston Villa and Club Brugge.
Another domestic rivalry between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich has also been proposed. This season, Xabi Alonso and Vincent Kompany will square off once more as Liverpool battles a dominant PSG.
Although Barcelona is the apparent favourite to win, Benfica vs. Barcelona is also anticipated to be a highly intense match. Both Borussia Dortmund and LOSC Lille, as well as Feyenoord and Inter Milan, will advance to the quarterfinals.
PSV Eindhoven, the only team to defeat Liverpool on the continental stage this season, will be the obstacle that Premier League outfit Arsenal must overcome in order to earn their first-ever Champions League title.
Favourites to Win Champions League
Arne Slot tipped to secure silverware in maiden season
According to the Supercomputer’s prediction, Liverpool will maintain their momentum from the league phase till they win at the Allianz Arena. The Reds are predicted to win every game, and in his first season, Arne Slot led the team to a significant victory by winning Europe’s most coveted award. At least 17.2% of the time, it is the case.
The fact that Arsenal has never won a European trophy is well-known and frequently made fun of by opposing supporters. Although they have only been able to finish in second place in recent years, they have been assigned a 13.6% chance of winning in Germany, which puts them just behind Serie A’s Inter Milan (12.7%) and La Liga powerhouse Barcelona (15.4%).
Real Madrid (11.6%), the competition’s record winners, are still among the top five clubs with the best chance of making it to the championship game despite their inconsistent recent play. Their recent 3-1 victory over Manchester City may also aid their cause. With an 8.8% chance of winning the continent’s largest award in May, Paris Saint-Germain is also one of the top contenders.
Following closely behind with chances of 5.8% and 4.8%, respectively, are Bundesliga teams Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen. The supercomputer has given Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, who are renowned for their strong defensive strategy, a 2.9% probability of winning.
Although LOSC Lille, this season’s surprise package, advanced to the Round of 16 in spectacular manner, their odds of winning the lot are only 1.4%, 0.1% higher than Benfica’s and 0.2% higher than PSV Eindhoven’s.
As demonstrated by their 1.0% probability of raising the trophy in Munich, Emery’s Aston Villa have performed admirably thus far, gaining automatic advancement into the Round of 16. However, the supercomputer believes their campaign is about to plateau.
It’s interesting that Borussia Dortmund has only received 0.8% of the glory despite their continental heritage. Club Brugge of Belgium (0.7%) and Feyenoord of the Eredivisie (0.6%) are the two teams with the lowest odds of winning the lot in the last 16 teams remaining at the top table of Europe.
2024–2025 Champions League favourites
Rank
Group
Possibility of winning
One
Liverpool
17%
2.
Barcelona
15.4%
3.
The Arsenal
13.6%
4.
Milan Inter
12.7%
5.
Real Madrid
11.6%
6.
Saint-Germain, Paris
8.8%
7.
Leverkusen Bayer
5.8%
8.
The Bayern Munich
4.8%
9.
Real Madrid
2.9%
10.
Lille LOSC
1.4%
11.
Benfica
1.3%
Twelve
PSV Eindhoven
1.1%
13.
Villa Aston
1.0%
14
Dortmund Borussia
0.8%
15.
Brugge Club
0.7%
16
The Feyenoord
0.6%
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